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Relentless mechanics on the foreign exchange market on Friday, where the pair of Euro / dollar currencies, based on a medium, took height in the wake of the content of the remarks made by J Powell, the pattern of the Fed, on the occasion of the Jackson Hole symposium. Taking a speech at the center of attentions at the end of this great mass of the main Argentiers on the planet gathered in the idyllic framework of the eponymous Wyoming valley, “Jay” Powell, without formally engaging his institution, paved the way towards a monetary relaxation.
The United States is approaching the moment when the FED will have to lower its interest rates to support employment, said on Friday August 22, the president of the central bank Jerome Powell in a long-awaited speech, especially by Donald Trump. A “rapid” degradation of the American labor market is not to be excluded and could “justify” a relaxation of monetary policy, and therefore of interest rates, warned the boss of the institution from the meetings of Jackson Hole, in Wyoming (West).
He adds that the Fed is in a “delicate situation” because the new customs duties set up by the American executive begin at the same time to affect the prices paid by consumers at the risk of reviving inflation.
The Federal Reserve will complete its next monetary policy meeting on September 17. And the probabilities of decreasing a quarter of a base point of the main guiding rates are around 87%, according to the data provided by the Fedwatch tool of the CME Group.
On this side of the Atlantic, the trades have just taken note of the IFO index of the business climate in Germany, the first economy of the euro zone. The index is rising at 89.0 points, slightly above expectations. A resumption of the German economy which, if it has the merit of confirming again, remains very fragile, under the terms of Klaus Wohlrab, director of IFO.
Still on the statistical component, the trades will read this afternoon at 4:00 p.m. new housing sales across the Atlantic, before the agenda really densifies itself tomorrow with the orders of lasting goods and the consumer confidence index (Conference Board).
At midday on the foreign exchange market, the euro was treated against $ 1.17 approximately.
Key graphics elements
The pair of Euro / dollar currencies is in the marked ascending phase, background, above an oblique right that makes sense. We have represented this linear level of graphic support in black. In the immediate future, we will keep an eye attentive to the relative positioning of the mobile averages at 20 (in dark blue) and 50 days (in orange) to optimize the entry points.
Medium term
In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is positive in the medium term on Euro dollar parity (Eurusd).
Our entry point is 1,1695 USD. The course of course in our Haussier scenario is 1,2464 USD. To preserve the committed capital, we advise you to position a protection stop at 1,1459 USD.
The profitability hope of this Forex strategy is 769 pips and the risk of loss is 236 pips.
The News Bulletin 247 Council
Daily data graphics
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