The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having political and economic consequences in Europe and Latin America. Millions of Ukrainians, mostly women and children, have abandoned their country and sought protection in EU countries. And world prices for raw materials have soared, especially for oil and natural gas, due to disruptions from the war and sanctions against Russia, which are disrupting global trade and supply chains.
In this context, what is Latin America’s place in the EU’s new geopolitical landscape? The economic and political impacts of the war Russia and Ukraine are the main producers of raw materials, and the disruptions have also caused the cost of food to rise with prices of wheat, for which Ukraine and Russia account for 30% of exports. worldwide, reaching record levels.
On the other hand, the Russian invasion has strengthened NATO and the EU as a common enemy is the best incentive to strengthen alliances. It can even be said that the EU has found a new sense of mission and no longer wants to limit itself to being a normative power.
In a speech to the European Parliament on March 1, EU High Representative Josep Borrell said the EU has become a “tough power”, which means “having the power to coerce”. Sanctions against Russia will lead to a dissociation between Russia and the EU. The EU will reduce its energy dependence on Russia, accelerate the energy transition to renewable energies and stop the export of technology and sensitive goods. In his speech, Borrell said: “I believe this is the moment when geopolitical Europe is being born.”
What is Latin America’s place in the EU’s new geopolitical landscape? In its new “Strategic Compass for Security and Defense”, approved at the end of March, the European Union mentions the specific dialogue on security and defense with Colombia and Chile, and proposes to continue promoting the participation of Latin American countries in the EU’s security and defense efforts. Furthermore, most Latin American governments have taken a clear stance in the face of Russian aggression.
But from the European perspective, there is also inconsistency and inconsistency in the positioning of governments in Latin America and the Caribbean. On March 2, 141 of the 193 UN member states voted in the General Assembly in favor of a resolution condemning the invasion of Russia and calling for its immediate withdrawal. The resolution was supported by most countries, only Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and El Salvador abstained. Venezuela criticized the resolution, but could not vote because it had not paid its contributions to the UN.
On March 24, the Latin American vote on a UN resolution on the humanitarian consequences of aggression against Ukraine was identical. And a day later, the Organization of American States adopted a resolution on Ukraine asking the Russian Federation to immediately withdraw all its military forces. Of the 34 active members of the OAS, 28 voted in favor, none against and five abstained, including Brazil (plus Bolivia, El Salvador, Honduras and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines).
The Latin American and Caribbean vote was even more divided when, on April 7, the UN General Assembly decided to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council following allegations of serious human rights violations in Ukraine. The majority (18 governments) voted in favour, 3 against (Bolivia, Cuba and Nicaragua) and 9 abstained, including Brazil, El Salvador and Mexico. This shows that, unlike the EU where in all votes on Ukraine there was no vote against or abstention, in Latin America and the Caribbean there is no common stance. Not a single Latin American regional organization has issued a declaration on the war.
It would even be difficult to find a joint declaration on the Russian invasion of Ukraine signed by all countries at an EU-CELAC Summit or at a Summit of the Americas. Shared values between Latin America and the EU In terms of friendliness and attractiveness as a model of development, Russia lags far behind the EU and the US, according to a Latinobarometer survey carried out in September last year in 10 countries in the region. In fact, almost half of those interviewed chose Europe as the region with which their country would be best advised to link up.
In a conflict that is also about common values and the shaping of the international order, the EU should use its sympathy bonus in Latin America. The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine could be the starting point for closer and broader economic relations between the EU and Latin America. This is an opportunity to give new impetus to the stalled agreement between Mercosur and the EU. In some areas, such as wheat or natural gas, Mercosur countries could compensate – only to a limited extent and in the medium term – for the loss of supplies from Russia and Ukraine.
Mercosur and other Latin American countries (such as Chile in the production of green hydrogen) could also become important partners of the EU in the development and production of green energy. The signing of the EU-Mercosur agreement would be a clear signal from both sides to expand their cooperation and stabilize the international economic order. However, this presupposes that the EU sets clear geostrategic priorities.
Climate diplomacy is important, but strengthening the EU’s geopolitical and geoeconomic position vis-a-vis Russia (and China) is more important right now. The EU should not just “talk” about Latin America as a strategic partner. In the context of the current threat to Europe, the EU should also “make” Latin America into a strategic partner. But Latin American governments will also have to position themselves more clearly.
In the past, much has been said about a community of values between Europe and Latin America. Now it’s time to put the cards on the table to see to what extent this community of values really exists. In Latin America, the idea of an active non-alignment in international politics has been widespread and discussed. It is worth asking whether this position is realistic in the current world political constellation. What the US and the EU expect is active alignment. So, one of the future challenges for Latin America is to position itself in this new geopolitical reality. Both alignment and non-alignment will have a cost.
