A Supreme Court ruling that could overturn Roe v. Wade, who guarantees the right to abortion in the US, puts the country in a scenario not seen in almost 50 years, in which the legal status of the practice depends entirely on the states. If the leaked draft of the draft, dated February, was published on Monday night (2) by the website Politico, turns out to be similar to the final opinion of the court, scheduled for next month, the women’s reproductive rights would be rewritten almost immediately. .
Understand below what a change in the court’s understanding of the subject would cause.
If Roe is taken down, would abortion become illegal everywhere? Not. Each state would decide if and when abortion would be legal. Many states would continue to allow it, and some have even begun to make provisions to serve women living in states that are likely to restrict abortion. At this time, the procedure remains authorized in all states.
Where would access to abortion be most likely to change? Abortion would likely become illegal in about half of US states, although some predictions differ. According to the Center for Reproductive Rights, a group that fights against restrictions on abortion rights and closely monitors state laws, 24 states are likely to ban abortion if allowed: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana , Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
The Guttmacher Institute, a research group focused on reproductive health, says a slightly different list of states is likely to greatly limit access to abortion: Its 26-state compilation excludes North Carolina and Pennsylvania but includes Florida, Iowa, Montana and Wyoming. . Thirteen states have so-called trigger laws, which were passed to make abortion illegal once a court rules.
Some have old abortion laws that were invalidated by the Roe decision but could be applied again. Other states, like Oklahoma, have abortion bans that were passed during the current legislative session, despite Roe’s precedent.
How would the number of abortions change in the US? Some women who want an abortion can get it in other ways, such as traveling to a state where the procedure is legal or ordering pills online from outside the country. Texas is an example. In September, a law came into force that prohibits abortion after fetal heart activity is detected, around six weeks’ gestation. Abortions at Texas clinics have dropped by half. But many women got the procedure in neighboring states or by ordering pills, resulting in an overall decline of only about 10%.
Without Roe, abortion would likely decline more because women would have to travel farther to a state where the practice is legal. Many women who have abortions are poor, and long travel distances can be impractical. The states that are likely to ban abortion are concentrated in the South, Midwest, and Great Plains. Due to the expected increase in interstate travel, the remaining clinics would likely be less able to serve the women who managed to reach them. December surveys of estimated changes in distances to clinics found that if Roe is taken down, the number of legal abortions is likely to drop by about 14%.
Who does abortions today? Under current law, about 1 in 4 American women would have an abortion at some point, according to research by the Guttmacher Institute. They include women from all backgrounds. But statistics show that women who have abortions in the United States are more likely to be single; in their 20s; low-income; and they already have a child. They have a disproportionate propensity to be black. And they are more likely to live in a Democratic-leaning state.
Without Roe, how would the US compare to the rest of the world? The US would join countries that have tightened abortion laws in recent years. Only three countries have done so since 1994: Poland, El Salvador and Nicaragua. During this period, 59 countries expanded access, according to the Center for Reproductive Rights. Under Roe, the US is a rare case of allowing abortion for any reason until about 23 weeks’ gestation. However, in many countries with previous reductions, abortion is allowed for a wide variety of reasons, according to the organization. Sixty-six countries – which are home to about a quarter of women of childbearing age – prohibit abortion or allow it only if the woman’s life is in danger. Without Roe, some US states would align with these countries.
When would that happen? Not immediately. Abortion remains legal in every state for now, and each has at least one clinic. The leaked document was described as a draft, not a final opinion. It could take a month or more before the Supreme Court officially decides the case, and that decision could differ from the bill that is currently circulating. If the court rules against the Roe Act, clinics in some states will likely start closing within days. In other states that prohibit the procedure, the process can take several months.
