The re-elected president of France, Emmanuel Macron, 44, begins his second term this Saturday (7), with the promise that the next five years will not be continuity, but a new method of governing, with more conciliation, so that it is possible implement its “humanist, republican, green and social” country project. The inauguration takes place at the Élysée Palace, at 11 am in Paris (6 am in BrasÃlia).
The guidelines that Macron envisions for his new presidency were outlined in his victory speech on April 24, when he defeated the far-right Marine Le Pen, with 58.5% of the vote. Since then, he has not made statements at public events, was almost hit by a tomato in his first meeting with the population and became the main target of the Labor Day demonstrations.
Locked in the palace, he focused on negotiations for the composition of the government and for the legislative election in June, decisive for his program to move forward, and on talks about the War in Ukraine. For now, the only certainty of renewal is in the name of his party, A República em Marcha, which is now called Renascimento — with the summit’s commitment that the action will not be restricted to packaging.
According to analysts, the post-election silence is a sign that Macron recognizes that he is navigating rough waters. “There is no context in which it is possible to propose very significant reforms. It is very different from five years ago”, says political scientist Bruno Cautrès, a researcher at Sciences Po.
“Macron had a very clear victory, but at the same time, with a lot of question marks. We don’t know exactly where he wants to go with this second term. Okay, he said it won’t be a continuation, but it’s not known what that is. means exactly.”
Even in relation to one of his most evident proposals in the campaign, the pension reform, there are uncertainties. In the first round, Macron was adamant that it was necessary to progressively increase, in the coming years, the minimum retirement age from 62 to 65 years. In the second round, he admitted the possibility of revising the cut to 64.
Another hesitation concerns the formation of the government. There is little clarity on who can be prime minister in place of Jean Castex, from the president’s party. Macron has signaled that he is looking for someone committed to social and ecological issues, in an attempt to shift the government’s profile to the left – he began his first term as a “radical centrist” and is now leaning towards the center-right with a liberal reformist agenda.
According to the French press, two women were approached and refused the offer. In 2017, the prime minister’s name was confirmed the day after his inauguration. This week, Macron’s spokesman said that the current team could remain in office until the official maximum limit, next Friday (13).
The composition of the government goes through the first major challenge of this term: the legislative elections, on June 12 and 19. By the rules of the election and the history of the last 20 years, the tendency is for the coalition around the president to win an absolute majority and be able to approve projects without depending on the other forces. The National Assembly has 577 seats, and the key number is 289. Five years ago, Macron’s acronym elected 308 names.
Now, however, the outcome is more unpredictable. “If he gets a relative majority, Macron will need to open up the coalition to other parties,” says Cautrès. “And we don’t know what effect the significant alliance between left-wing parties will have on voter mobilization.”
Last week, the ultra-leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, led the formation of a kind of united front including the Greens, Communists and Socialists – together, the candidates of these acronyms had 30% of the votes in the first presidential round. The politician’s intention is to capitalize on his third place in the Élysée dispute in order to obtain an absolute majority in the Assembly and force his appointment as prime minister. The feat is considered unlikely, but could interfere with Macron’s plans.
Aware of the movement, his party announced a ticket, this Thursday (5), with two other centrist parties: MoDem, an ally since 2017, and the recently created Horizontes, by former prime minister Edouard Philippe.
After the legislative dispute, two challenges emerge as urgent for Macron, albeit at different times. In the short term, to respond to French concerns about the cost of living. In the long run, convince 30 million voters that they didn’t vote for him or didn’t even go to the polls in the second round.
One path for both involves the need to recalibrate the way of governing, considered arrogant and distant from the real life of the population. “We will have to make him realize that it will not be possible to continue to decide everything alone. He has a very solitary exercise of power. We will work to make him listen to us more”, he told the Sheet MEP Marie Toussaint of the Greens.
The main theme of the presidential campaign, purchasing power continues to be eroded by inflation, which recorded a new high in April, reaching 5.4% in the annual rate. Macron has already released a €25 billion package of measures to ease the rise in energy prices, and he is under pressure from unions to raise wages – one of the proposals of the left slate is to raise the minimum wage from €1,250 to €1,400.
The election comes especially from the health area, which suffers from the lack of professionals after two years of the pandemic, and from education. In the campaign, Macron even told teachers that higher pay would go to those who take on more roles – which aroused the ire of the category.
According to economists, the government’s spending capacity involves reforming pensions, an unpopular measure abandoned in the first term, but seen as essential. In the European Union, France is one of the countries that spends the most on pensions and where the population tends to leave the labor market early. The demonstrations of the Yellow Vests, in the pre-pandemic, and the last 1th of May, with violent acts, indicate that the task should not be quiet.
Emphasized throughout the run-off campaign and also in his victory speech, the goal of transforming France into a “great green nation” is shrouded in mishaps — starting with the results of the first term. In 2020, France was the only EU country not to meet the renewable energy target. And last year, the state was condemned by the courts for not respecting climate commitments, such as cutting gas emissions by 40% by 2030.
“What he proposed in search of votes, such as doubling the rate of reduction of gas emissions, cannot even be considered an electoral promise. It is something recommended by scientists to respect the Paris Agreement, an international law, and ordered by Justice” , says Toussaint. “It’s great that he said he’s going to do it, but it’s something he has to do.”
One of the challenges in this area is dealing with the agricultural sector, responsible for a fifth of emissions and relevant to the country’s economy and culture — and in which Le Pen has achieved good results.
On the international stage, Macron, in order to continue carrying out his “sovereign Europe” project, needs to get closer to neighboring Olaf Scholz, Germany’s premier in office for less than six months. The two lead the strongest EU countries and lead talks involving the Ukraine War.
That is why, on Monday (9), 48 hours after his inauguration and on the symbolic Europe Day – under the shadow of a speech by Vladimir Putin on Victory Day in Moscow – he travels to Berlin. It is a form of reciprocity for the gesture made by Scholz, who visited Paris shortly after his inauguration, but also an indication that Macron knows he has no time to waste.
