Electoral polarization, which has been predicted since the annulment of former president Lula’s convictions, is not only confirmed, but also projects a plebiscitary presidential election in the first round. Not only does the supposed third way go up in smoke, but political polarization tends to deepen, as never before in the history of this country. If it is to be regretted how much polarization lowers the political-programmatic debate, one cannot lose sight of how unavoidable it is in the current conjuncture.
In this scenario, a probable second round between Lula and Bolsonaro will hardly take place within democratic normality. We already know what to expect from Bolsonaro. In addition to the “anything goes” of his 2018 campaign, he is now in control of the civil and military machine.
It is not by chance that Bolsonaro has oscillated positively in the voting intention polls, still without threatening Lula’s leadership in the electoral race. But we must remember that the electoral campaign has not yet started in earnest – officially, only in August.
In Bolsonaro’s coupist mind, reaching a second round with Lula is the opportunity to conflagrate the country. With the intention of losing the vote, creating an environment of political destabilization and preventing, in some way, the inauguration of your opponent. Although there is a distance between will and ability in Bolsonaro’s coup, one should not underestimate its popular appeal, nor its links with international ultraconservatism and with the domestic and foreign financial oligarchy.
All those who, regardless of party color, consider Bolsonaro’s continuity unacceptable and unthinkable, need to take into account the enormous risk of taking the election to a second round. A victory for Lula, already in the first round, would represent a resounding rejection of the government, reducing the chances of reaction from Bolsonaro and his supporters. It is certainly not an easy task. There has been a second round in the last five presidential elections.
This is not a rhetorical argument with the intention of blackmailing the conscience of male and female voters, not least because we have already positioned ourselves, on another occasion, critically of the Lula-Alckmin ticket. It is, however, an unfortunately very likely scenario, given everything we have witnessed since the 2016 coup, crowned by the current neo-fascist government.
Neither is the legitimate electoral options being questioned here in candidacies that, like Lula’s, present themselves as oppositional, as in the cases of the PDT, UP, PCB and PSTU. In an environment of democratic “normality”, the election in two rounds aims, precisely, to favor, in the case of majority positions, the dispute between different political projects, in the first round; and the formation of a solid majority, in the second, when opposing projects vie for votes. However, the inevitable polarization will already turn the first round into a plebiscite, in which the approval or disapproval of the Bolsonaro government will be under scrutiny.
Lula’s candidacy is, in fact, the only one capable of standing up to Bolsonaro’s electorally. If Bolsonaro has his 20% of loyal voters, Lula has his historic base of 30%. More than composing a leftist or democratic party front around Lula’s candidacy, the importance of a victory in the first round imposes a movement campaign, which mobilizes the streets and, mainly, the youth.
The call made by artists recently for the young population, between 16 and 18 years old, whose vote is optional, to withdraw their voter registration is a concrete example of what can be done in terms of mobilization. The preference for Lula among young people between 16 and 24 years old exceeds 50%.
movement campaign
A mobilization is needed that resounds, throughout the four corners of the country, a resounding no to everything that Bolsonaro embodies, as “captain of the bush” of the financial oligarchies. As directly responsible for the thousands of preventable deaths in the pandemic; for putting Brazil back on the hunger map; for the dismantling of public education and research; by contempt for culture; by the institutionalization of the lie, via fake news and the dissimulation of a blatant corruption saying itself against the “old politics”; for the praise of militia, torture and torturers; for the spread of religious intolerance, LGBTphobia and racism; by the rise in fuel, food and public service tariffs; and by the increase in unemployment and precariousness of work.
This will be a campaign that will have to win the streets and not leave them. In 2018, the progressive sector took to the streets in the second round, in what became known as the “turn vote” movement. Such a movement managed, in fact, to make Haddad’s candidacy grow in the final stretch. People took to the streets willing to listen to the population about their preferences and motivations, seeking to expose the differences between the candidacies.
Well, now we need something similar, right now! But, make no mistake, the mobilization will not take place only by denial, by the anti-Bolsonaro. It also depends on a horizon, an agenda that brings together and articulates dissatisfaction against the ultra-neoliberalism of the current government.
An agenda that includes, for example, the review of privatizations, the spending ceiling, labor reform, central bank autonomy; and in favor of agrarian reform, the rights of indigenous peoples, the strengthening of the SUS, the reduction in fuel prices, taxation of the rich (profits and dividends), the democratization of money via popular banks and social currencies.
It is not a matter of waiting for the heat of the events of a second round, which could throw us into an even greater setback than we have experienced so far. It is therefore up to us to fan this heat in our favor, anticipating and keeping mobilized, occupying all spaces, private and public, closing ranks against Bolsonarism. And if Lula does not win in the first round, then let us remain mobilized in the streets, including to defend, if necessary, the legality of the election, the most elementary condition of a democracy.
This will not be just another election campaign. We are living a unique and decisive moment in our weak democratic trajectory and we are all responsible for its direction. It’s more than an election. It is about the possibility of continuing to fight for the improvement of the lives of the majority of the population, subjected daily to violence and famine.
Despite the importance of Lula and the PT for Brazilian democracy, the immediate task is greater and imposes itself on any political party project. It is about confronting our recent past and being willing to prevent the fascist tumor from spreading and metastasizing in national life.
