Covid death rate in Sweden is among the lowest in Europe even without lockdown

May 10, 2022

Robert

Conjured up at different times and places, as a good or bad example, for its strategy to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, Sweden had one of the lowest mortality rates from the disease in Europe between January 2020 and December 2021, according to a study released by the WHO (World Health Organization) earlier this month.

The country followed directions that were often contrary to those adopted by other nations on the continent. Since March 2020, when it recorded the first case of the disease, the government has not enacted lockdowns or general confinements as a way to contain the spread of the virus; the preference was for making general recommendations – even so, museums, sporting events and universities had restrictions, and restaurants were closed because they broke the rules of distancing.

The mandatory use of masks was not determined even at the beginning of 2022, when the country recorded the peak of contamination: at the time, the rate was more than 4,000 new daily cases per 1 million inhabitants – the Brazilian average was no more than 900. , according to the Our World in Data platform.

The most recent WHO survey takes into account the criterion of “excess mortality”, seen by several experts as the most efficient to analyze the real impact of Covid on the population. In practice, the index is calculated as the difference between the number of deaths in a given period and what would be expected in the absence of the pandemic, based on data from previous years.

In the Swedish case, the research reached an average excess mortality rate of 56 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The number is lower than those recorded in European countries that have adopted harsh social isolation policies, such as France (63), Spain (111), Germany (116) and Italy (133).

On the other hand, the Swedes lose out compared to their Scandinavian neighbors: Denmark recorded an excess of 32 deaths per 100,000, and Norway did not even register more deaths than the average of previous years. The two countries adopted severe restrictions to contain the advance of the pandemic and even criticized Stockholm’s position.

According to experts consulted by the British newspaper The Telegraph, the fact that Sweden has lower rates of obesity – a condition that is a risk factor for more serious cases of Covid-19 – and a health system with better resources may have contributed to this. that the country has one of the lowest rates in Europe.

The rapid vaccination campaign in the country also weighs heavily on the numbers. At the end of August 2021, for example, when less than 30% of the Brazilian population had the first complete vaccine cycle against Covid-19, more than half of the Swedes had already received the second dose of the immunizer.

Epidemiologist Carlos Starling, a consultant for the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases, considers that the comparison of excess mortality in different countries needs to take into account other factors, such as per capita income, the country’s care capacity and population characteristics.

A comparison that does not filter such aspects, according to him, would be fragile and biased. “Sweden was one of the countries that registered one of the highest rates of denialism in the pandemic, along with the United Kingdom – at the beginning -, the US under [Donald] Trump and Brazil”, he adds.

According to the WHO, excess mortality includes deaths directly and indirectly associated with Covid-19. Among these are, for example, deaths of patients who suffered from other diseases and were unable to find places in hospitals due to the overload caused by the coronavirus.

The estimated number of excess deaths can also be influenced, according to the organization, by the deaths avoided, as measures to contain Sars-CoV-2 were reflected in lower risks associated with certain events, such as traffic or work accidents.

Altogether, the world recorded an excess of 14.9 million deaths in these two years of health crisis (in the margin, from 13.3 million to 16.6 million), a number well above the number officially reported by the countries. According to the platform Our World in Data, for example, about 6.25 million people have died from Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic.

“Measuring excess mortality is an essential component of understanding the impact of the pandemic,” said Samira Asma, assistant director-general for data, analysis and delivery at the WHO, in the presentation of the study. “Due to limited investments in data systems in many countries, the true extent of excess mortality often remains hidden.”

Most excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in Southeast Asia, Europe and the Americas. Furthermore, according to the WHO, about 68% of excess deaths occurred in just ten countries, including the US, Russia and India.

Middle-income countries account for 81% of excess deaths worldwide. Brazil appears with an excess of 160 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, while Argentina has 99.

Richer and poorer countries represent, respectively, 15% and 4% of excesses.

Still in the line of comparisons, the global number of deaths was higher for men than for women (57% and 43%, respectively) and for the elderly – proportions that follow trends already pointed out by previous studies.

In October, an independent commission appointed by the government itself criticized Sweden’s strategy for dealing with the health crisis. The study pointed out that the actions taken to contain the pandemic were slow and insufficient. “The Swedish choice emphasized control measures based on voluntarism and individual responsibility, rather than interventional measures,” the report noted.