Reinforced by his victory in the presidential election, the President of France, Emanuel Macronwill now have to reveal the name of the future prime minister with his eyes on the difficult parliamentary elections in June in a politically fragmented country, in the midst of a political landscape in a process of complete reconstruction.
The re-elected president on April 24 is called to end the suspense by revealing the head of the next government until midnight on Friday, when his first five-year term ends and the second begins.
The new prime minister will be at the forefront of the campaign for the June 12th and 19th parliamentary elections.
At present, the Emanuel Macron he is silent and suffices to assure that he has already made his choice to replace Jean Castex. Nothing obliges him to reveal the name of the prime minister and the composition of the cabinet before the parliamentary elections.
But the gossip is intensifying based on the portrait that the president himself has formed: rather a woman, with an aroma of social, environmental and development policy.
After being sworn in last Saturday during a simple but highly symbolic ceremony, Emanuel Macron is “playing with the calendar” and wants a “short election campaign”, a government minister recently said.
The French president secured a re-election with a comfortable majority in his duel with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen (58.55% vs. 41.45%) in the last act of the presidential election which highlighted the major social and geographical rifts that divide the country.
The liberal centrist leader says he wants to “invent a new method, away from the customs and choreography used” to govern “by designing, reforming and uniting” his fellow citizens more.
The election of the Prime Minister will send the first messages in this direction.
The last five years have been full of crises, from the anti-systemic mobilizations of the “yellow vests” to the Covid-19 pandemic.
And the immediate future is warm with the prospect of a major pension reform in the autumn, combined with the unprecedented wave of inflation in recent decades that is hitting the French directly in the wallet.
The presidential election, also marked by the war in Ukraine, showed strong tendencies to reject the system and democratic apathy, which was expressed by a record abstention (28%).
All eyes on the parliamentary elections
Consequently, the parliamentary elections will be decisive for the new presidential term.
Since 2002, when the five-year term was introduced, “parliamentary elections are intertwined with the results of the presidential election,” said Frederic Dabby, director of the Ifop polling institute, who traditionally choices they made in the presidential.
He adds, however, that there are many unbalanced factors that can undo this classic pattern, such as a long election campaign along with the reconstruction of the political landscape.
Although, according to the latest polls, the presidential majority is in an advantageous position, the left-wing opposition, allied behind Jean-Luc Melanson, is cultivating the hope of an electoral victory that will force the French president to cohabit for the first time. 2002.
Always divided, the French left, environmentalists, communists, socialists, rallied behind Melanson and his Rebellious France under the name Nupes (New Popular Ecological and Social Union)
But analysts say no such election victory is possible. Frederick Dummy considers it impossible. “The left is starting from such a low base (…) that securing a majority in the National Assembly seems unlikely,” even if the left could emerge, according to a recent OpinionWay-KeaPartners poll, the French opposition’s leading force.
From the far right, Marine Le Pen’s party is campaigning in the hope of a mass entry into the French National Assembly, in the wake of its historic performance in the presidency. The party has eight seats in the outgoing parliament.
For both men and women, everything depends on the participation of the French in the voting of the parliamentary elections. Traditionally, parliamentary elections have mobilized voters less, warns the director of Ifop.
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