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The US newspaper The Wall Street Journal published a long story this week reporting that the country’s premier, Li Keqiang, works behind the scenes to influence the choice of his successor. The idea is to have a prime minister who stands up to Xi Jinping.
In 2018, Xi managed to remove the term limit from the Constitution (until then, a secretary-general could only hold office for a maximum of two five-year terms). Although the decision was unanimously approved by the National People’s Assembly, as is customary, the movement did not please some wings of the party.
- Since then, Xi has worked to consolidate his power domestically and is laying the groundwork for a third term starting later this year;
- To ensure a smooth process, he enforced the “zero Covid” policy and activated the propaganda machine to trumpet the government’s success in protecting people.
It worked until the arrival of the Ômicron, a variant much more contagious than the previous ones. Now, according to the American newspaper, citing high-ranking sources in China, officials linked to the Communist Youth League, a body that has ties to Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, would be moving to limit the current leader’s influence.
The Wall Street Journal cites Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to big tech last month as a sign of this infighting. These companies have been hit hard by regulations that have limited the growth and scope of activities by ventures like e-commerce giant Alibaba and ride-sharing company Didi — which owns 99 in Brazil.
“Sources at the center of power said the visits by Li and his staff served to signal that Xi’s crackdown had hurt employment and growth. Li is the driving force behind the change,” the paper reported, citing party officials.
In November, the National People’s Congress decides whether to maintain or choose a new leadership of the country, in addition to selecting the names for the Politburo, the Central Military Committee and the Standing Committee of the National Assembly, three of the main decision-making bodies in the bureaucratic structure. chinese.
why it matters: if in 2021 someone said that Xi’s hegemony would be threatened months away from choosing the country’s leadership, any Chinese sinologist or analyst would consider the statement crazy.
This no longer seems to be the case. If the chaos of the Shanghai lockdown spreads across the country, the chances are high that Xi will not consolidate the conditions for a third term or even be forced to work with a hostile Politburo. The political consequences would certainly be felt for at least the next five years.
what also matters
After serving a five-year sentence for the “crime of subversion”, a Taiwanese activist was released this week from a Chinese prison.
Lee Ming-che was visiting China in 2017 when he disappeared. Known for his human rights record, Lee was taken to a prison in Hunan Province.
He reported being forced to work long shifts manufacturing items such as bags and shoes. In addition, on more than one occasion he would have received spoiled food and had his request to visit his father’s funeral denied.
In his first statements after his release, the activist said he had been coerced into confessing to the crimes he was accused of. According to the Supchina website, the exact reasons why he was arrested were never clear – it is speculated that his conversations about democratizing Taiwan with Chinese friends were probably monitored by Beijing.
In a brief press release, Lee urged Taiwanese activists to be more careful in interactions with Chinese contacts. His current location has not been revealed.
After asking the Chinese government to reassess its “zero Covid” policy, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom was censored on China’s social media.
Adhanom told the press that “given the behavior of the virus and what we foresee in the future”, “China’s approach will not be sustainable”. The speech reverberated in China and spread across the internet.
Since the beginning of the week, anyone trying to access the video receives a message saying that the link “violated national laws and regulations”. A search for the hashtag #Tedros on Weibo, a kind of Chinese Twitter, leads to a page with no results.
In addition to digital censorship, China also officially reacted to the speeches of the WHO director. The PC-linked Global Times newspaper called the statement “irresponsible”, while the Foreign Ministry urged Tedros to avoid “frivolous comments”.
keep an eye
Researchers at Shanghai Fudan University estimated that “living with the virus” of Covid-19 could result in 112 million symptomatic infections, 2.7 million intensive care admissions and nearly 1.6 million deaths between May and July.
The study reinforces the need to control transmission and helps support the decision of the Politburo Standing Committee, which last week indicated the continuity of the “Covid zero” strategy in the medium term.
why it matters: China has one of the worst rates of ICU beds in the world: just 3.6 per 100,000 inhabitants – most of which are concentrated in large cities. Living with the virus includes accepting a considerable number of deaths and chaos in the hospital system, something that, at least for now, the Chinese leadership does not seem willing to pay to see.
to go deep
- For its monthly international event, Observa China welcomes researcher Francesca Staiano, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the National University of La Plata, this Saturday (14th). She will talk about Sino-Latin American relations. (free, in English)
