When nationalist Sinn Féin was confirmed last Saturday as the biggest party in Northern Ireland, experts spoke of earthquakes due to the now less remote possibility that the two Irelands could be reunited after a hundred years. The first tremors, however, were caused by another old acquaintance in the region – Brexit.
Almost six years after the referendum and more than two years after the United Kingdom left the European Union (EU), the dispute for 90 seats in the Belfast Regional Assembly has rekindled the exchange of barbs between authorities in London and Brussels, with the risk that a trade war between the parties is detonated in the midst of a real war in which both are allies.
The climb, last week, began shortly after the victory of Sinn Féin, which took 27 seats and became, for the first time in history, the biggest political force in the country, pushing the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to second place. pro-UK. In practice, a symbolic alternation, because the two need to govern the country together.
Under the rules of the 1998 Belfast Agreement, the Good Friday Agreement, the two parties are required to share power. The one with the most votes indicates the prime minister and the second, the vice – and both have the same status. The treaty was intended to end decades of violent conflict between unionists and nationalists.
The DUP, however, refuses to form a government until the country’s part of Brexit is reviewed. The so-called Northern Ireland Protocol seeks to soften the effects of the divorce between the United Kingdom and the EU on the two Irelands, as the northeastern part of the island left the bloc along with the British, while the southern part, the Republic of Ireland, remains in the European market.
To avoid a hard border between them, which could be a new element to destabilize the region, the British government agreed to move this line to the sea. The result is that today, even though the protocol has not been fully implemented, there are customs controls between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, both part of the United Kingdom.
“This has had a limited impact on the country’s economy, but in terms of identity and politics, it has a huge effect on unionism, because all their talk is about being part of the UK. In their view, protocol is a threat to that. “, explains professor of political sociology Katy Hayward of Queen’s University in Belfast.
On Friday (13), the DUP took an even more radical step. In addition to blocking the formation of the Executive, he refused to participate in the nomination of the President of the Assembly, also paralyzing the Legislative.
“The protocol is a direct challenge to the principles that have underpinned every agreement reached in Northern Ireland over the last 25 years,” said Jeffrey Donaldson, party leader, noting that a quick solution is difficult. “I have the patience and determination to see the sea boundary removed.” Under the rules, unionists and nationalists have 24 weeks to reach an agreement and consolidate a new government.
Sinn Féin leader Michelle O’Neill, possibly future prime minister, called the decision a shameful decision. “Today is the day we should form a government to put money in people’s pockets and start fixing our healthcare system. The DUP is kidnapping the population for its Brexit mess,” she said.
The party, like most elected officials, is in favor of the Northern Ireland Protocol. According to Hayward, 54 of the Assembly’s 90 seats are held by supporters of the post-Brexit deal. In the 2016 referendum, the majority of the population in the country (55.8%) voted to remain in the EU.
With the suspension of the Executive and Legislative branches, ministers from the previous administration remain in office, but without the power to make important decisions. In the British press, the situation is described as a “zombie” government. For Jon Tonge, a professor at the University of Liverpool who specializes in Northern Irish politics, this is a limbo that could jeopardize the peace agreement itself. “Unionists can hold out for a long time, which would be the end of the Good Friday Agreement. If there is no power sharing, what is the point of it?”
If the stalemate persists, the UK could call new elections, which, according to Tonge, would not change the scenario. “And the British government could abandon power-sharing institutions and take control of Northern Ireland back to London, which nobody wants.”
Hayward also points out that the protocol cannot be resolved by either the DUP or the other parties, as it is a matter between the United Kingdom and the European Union. It is for this reason that, in recent days, the debate has crossed Irish waters and reached Brussels and even Washington – the US acted in the construction of the peace agreement in the 1980s and 1990s.
Despite having negotiated and approved the protocol with the aim of preserving stability in the region, Boris Johnson’s government now advocates that it be revised, due to excessive inspections and bureaucracy on the movement of goods between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. And because, in the face of the unionists’ refusal to form the government, the text became a risk for peace.
Last Thursday (12), Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said that if the EU shows no flexibility, the government “has no choice but to act.” The threat is to unilaterally break and overturn parts of the protocol, which, according to local media, could start as early as next week.
On the same day, Maros Sefcovic, vice president of the European Commission, said that the bloc has always sought to solve what it considers legitimate problems – as it did with medicines, a sector that had its rules relaxed in October. “There needs to be honesty about what the UK has signed. Our position is consistent: we are not going to renegotiate,” he said. For him, a unilateral action is unacceptable.
In response, the EU can put in place trade retaliation and expand border controls (which could result in queues and product shortages), as well as sue the UK legally. “A lot of people think the government should focus on the cost of living. Many wonder: in the midst of a crisis, does Boris really want to provoke a possible trade war with the EU, which could result in further price increases?”, asks Jill. Rutter, a researcher at the UK think tank in a Changing Europe.
This has only been the first crackle caused by Sinn Féin’s victory. Experts say the earthquakes linked to the party’s original manifesto — the reunification of Ireland — are still possible.
Although it was not a campaign banner, centered on high prices and the deficiencies of the health system, the objective remains in the target and goes through two processes. First, building greater popular support for reunification, currently around 30%, for the British government to call a referendum. Then, the results that Sinn Féin can obtain in the elections of the Republic of Ireland, in 2025.
“If the party becomes the biggest in the south as well, which seems likely today by the polls, then the pressure for reunification increases,” says Tonge. “Becoming the biggest in Northern Ireland is the first step on a path that would lead to a reunited Ireland. It’s not something for the short term, but it could be ten years from now.” The forecast on the island is for more earthquakes.
