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Germany: CDU and Green winners of ‘small federal’ elections in North Rhine-Westphalia

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The Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the Greens are the winners of the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state.

Big losers on the other hand are the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and especially the Liberals (FDP).

Polls in recent days have predicted a derby in North Rhine-Westphalia, a state that is considered a barometer for parties at the federal level.

However, the CDU denied the predictions, recording a clear victory with 35.9%, even increasing its percentage from 2017, when it had received 33.9% of the votes.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD), which aspired to nominate the next prime minister of the state government, was reduced to 26.7%, a drop of 4.5 points from the previous elections in the state.

On the contrary, the Greens strengthened by 11.6 points, receiving 18%.

Marginally above the bar to stand for MPs, at 5.8%, was the Liberal Party (FDP), which suffered heavy losses: 6.8 points. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) lost 1.9 points, however, which finally manages to secure its entry in the state Parliament with a percentage of 5.5%.

CDU leader and prime minister of the CDU-FDP coalition government Hendrik Vust has made it clear that he believes he should remain in charge of the state’s new government.

“The CDU of North Rhine-Westphalia has clearly won this election. The world has clearly made us the strongest force. This is tantamount to a mandate to form the next government but also to lead it “, said the winner of the elections and thanked his government partner so far, the FDP, for the cooperation and the relationship of trust in recent years, as well as his predecessor, Armin Lassett, who left the state government last year to run for the CDU as an unlucky candidate for chancellor. As for possible collaborations, Mr Bust said he would speak “with all democratic parties”.

FDP leader Christian Lindner, who hails from the state, also spoke of a “sad night” and a “catastrophic defeat”, the third in a row following the Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein elections. However, he tried to revive the morale of his executives by saying: “Keep your head up! “The Liberals win and lose together.”

The CDU-FDP coalition in North Rhine-Westphalia was the last to survive across the country.

The SPD general secretary in the state, Nadia Lunders, did not hide the intentions of her party, which in theory could lead a coalition government with the Greens: “Of course, the government mandate belongs to the CDU and the Greens, whom I warmly congratulate their success – especially the Greens. “But we are ready for talks,” he said.

In any case, it is the Greens who will give the government to the CDU or the SPD.

With the SPD, the majority would be marginal, while the Greens would also have to explain why they choose the “loser” for cooperation. What is certain is that the “minor” party of the new government will be strong and demanding.

The head of the SPD in the state, Thomas Koutsati, had relied heavily on his good relationship with Chancellor Olaf Soltz, who in turn made it clear in the run-up to the election that he supported him. So the defeat is his too. And if last Sunday’s election the SPD’s defeat could be attributed to the widespread popularity of CDU candidate and state Prime Minister Daniel Gooder, in the case of North Rhine-Westphalia nothing like that is true.

Commenting on the result, Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) spoke of frustration and humiliation, but did not rule out the formation of an SPD-Green government.

At the same time, the Liberals have probably paid the price for their poor performance in the outgoing state government, especially in education policy, and they do not seem to be doing very well at the federal level either. After their third defeat this year, dissatisfaction with the leadership is growing.

Instead, the leadership of the CDU, the FDP’s main rival, can breathe a sigh of relief. Friedrich Mertz has so far passed the basic tests successfully and, as the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, his hometown and constituency, have the nickname “small federal elections”, he has many reasons to be optimistic. “This election was also a test for the people at the federal level. “The CDU is back, our way forward is being confirmed,” Mertz said on Twitter.

According to a poll conducted by the Infratest Dimap Institute on behalf of the first channel of the German public television ARD, 19% of the voters in North Rhine-Westphalia had the main criterion for their vote to increase the prices of goods, 17% the climate, 16% energy and 16% war in Ukraine. To the question “which party has the best answers for the future?”, 24% choose the Greens, 17% the CDU and 15% the SPD. At the same time, however, satisfaction with the work of Christian Democrat Prime Minister Hendrik Vust reaches 48%.

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