Millions of Australians go to the polls on Saturday (21) to choose lawmakers and the prime minister in an election in which the role played by another country, China, is a central topic of debates and exchanges of accusations between candidates.
A critic of Beijing, conservative Prime Minister Scott Morrison, 54, of the Liberal Party, is seeking re-election and is trying to push the centre-right Liberal-National coalition to its fourth consecutive term in power. His main opponent is opposition leader and one of Australia’s most experienced politicians, Anthony Albanese, 59, of the centre-left Labor Party. Polls point to a tight race.
In an unprecedented way, Chinese foreign policy and its leader, Xi Jinping, set the tone for the campaign in Australia, highlighting the strained relationship between the two countries.
Last month, in the most recent diplomatic crisis, the regime formalized a security agreement with the Solomon Islands, a country in the South Pacific region just 1,600 kilometers off the northeast coast of Australia. The treaty puts Chinese military forces at the disposal of the Solomonic government and heightens tensions over Beijing’s ambitions in the Australian backyard, which has been growing concern in recent years over Xi’s advances over the South China Sea.
Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne said she was disappointed and concerned about the treaty’s potential to “undermine stability in the region”. Last month, Morrison hinted that the deal would be a form of interference by the Chinese regime in Australian elections.
It is not now, however, that the image of Xi has been exploited by Australian politicians. Even before the campaign began, supporters of the Liberal Party were already saying, without evidence, that China is acting for the success of Albanese and that Labor, if they win, will be subservient to the communist regime.
Representatives of the Labor Party, meanwhile, accuse the Morrison government of failings in national security due to the standoffs with China. In his defense, the prime minister claims to have strengthened the so-called Quad, a group that includes Australia, the US, Japan and India and whose main objective is to contain the Chinese presence in the Indo-Pacific region.
According to Carlos Gustavo Poggio, professor of international relations at Faap, the diplomatic relationship between Australia and China is at one of the most critical moments in history. The turning point came in 2020 when, still in the first months of the pandemic, Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origin of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan.
In retaliation, China imposed trade barriers on Australian beef, taxed the country’s barley imports by 80% and discouraged people from traveling to Australia due to “cases of discrimination against Asians”.
The estrangement between Morrison and Beijing was cemented last year with the signing of a pact with the US and UK to arm Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.
“Australian foreign policy had a certain strategic ambiguity and was balanced between China and the US. This ended during the Morrison administration, which began to prioritize the US as its main partner”, says Poggio.
Although diplomacy with Beijing is a frequent topic in Australian debates this year, the professor sees an “anti-China consensus” in the two main parties contesting the elections and does not believe in significant changes in relations with the Asian neighbor.
“I don’t think China has any sort of preference in the Australian elections. Beijing has already expressed a desire to re-discuss relations with Australia regardless of who wins.”
For Simon Jackman, a professor at the University of Sydney, an external threat to Australia has not been the focus of an election since the Cold War. “For a younger set of voters, there is nothing [assim] in memory,” he told the Reuters news agency.
Domestically, measures to contain the rising cost of living amid the pandemic and accelerating inflation due to the Ukrainian War could also mobilize Australian voters.
The country’s economy expanded even during the health crisis and is expected to grow another 4.2% this year, according to the IMF projection. Despite the good performance, the Central Bank of Australia decided to raise the basic interest rate for the first time in 11 years, which rose from 0.10% to 0.35% at the beginning of the month and could reach 2.5% by the end of the month. end of the year, according to market estimates.
Faced with rising prices, Albanese has criticized Morrison’s economic policy and has even expressed support for salary recomposition by the inflation rate. The statement was dismissed as “extremely reckless”. He said raising wages by more than 5% would be like “throwing fuel on the fire of rising interest rates and the cost of living.” Australian consumer prices rose 5.1% in the first quarter of 2022 year-on-year.
Floods and wildfires that have ravaged Australia in recent years are also grounds for criticism of Morrison. The prime minister is also under pressure for more investment in clean energy, but has pledged support for the coal mining industry.
Morrison’s stance in managing the pandemic is well evaluated by the population. Australia has one of the lowest death rates in the world. The country has recorded 6.8 million cases and 7,977 deaths from the coronavirus as of this Thursday (19), according to data from John Hopkins University. It is not clear, however, to what extent the premier’s conduct in the face of the health crisis will bring political capital translated into votes at the polls.
Another factor of expectation regarding the vote on Saturday is the participation of women. The female vote is even more coveted in this year’s race due to a wave of protests that brought together thousands of people after allegations of abuse and harassment that would have been committed by members of the government.
Morrison even publicly apologized to former government official Brittany Higgins, who denounced having been raped by a co-worker in a ministerial cabinet in 2019. attract votes from middle-class voters, a group considered essential for an eventual victory for Labor.
