Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: What will Bolsonaro do to avoid defeat in the first round?

Jair Bolsonaro (PL) did not lose the votes he gathered earlier this year, shows Datafolha. Lula da Silva (PT) won, enough even to win the election in the first round. The problem of the candidate who now occupies the Planalto is again how not to lose in the first round. What will or can you invent, for example, in terms of economic favors? The election and election year is still far from over, but the arsenal of magic has gotten smaller.

Until the March or April polls, Bolsonaro must have benefited from Sergio Moro (União Brasil) being taken out of the dispute, the discreet and unexpected downturn in the economy since 2022 and some economic favors.

Judging by Datafolha, the meager harvest of voting intentions is over for now. It will be more difficult to harvest a better crop in the second half of the year.

According to the best available estimates, which are still often wrong, the economy would have grown well in the first quarter, less so in the second and would start to shrink from July, closing the second half of the year in the red.

By “grows well” we mean the worsening of misery that we are seeing: a considerable number of more people employed, but receiving the worst salaries of the decade, among other problems in the employment situation. In the second half of the year, that tiny relief would also wane, according to economists. Inflation remains, now at more than 12% a year and at least 10% a year until at least the election.

Bolsonaro and the government have so far not managed to fix even the price of fuel, just one of those that exploded, but practically the only one that deserved electoral commitment. Even if all the measures to contain energy readjustments and tax cuts are passed in Congress or through Justice, the price reduction would be limited and would still take time to appear for the final consumer.

Even if Bolsonaro manages to get his hand on Petrobras for good, he could only do so from July. Even if it succeeds, it could end up causing a disastrous diesel shortage. The government is still trying to invent a truck driver (and taxi driver and app drivers and motorcyclists), but not even this caraminguá is going to leave anytime soon.

Bolsonaro insisted on giving readjustments to federal police officers. The police thought it was rubbish, the readjustment still hasn’t come out and a good part of the civil servants was outraged at having been discriminated against, with no promise of a raise, or went on strike.

There were successes, which may have prevented Bolsonaro from falling in the poll. The partial withdrawal of the FGTS and several debt renegotiations, for example, were a relief for the flayed Brazilian. Tax rebates did not lead to a fall in prices, but they may have prevented further increases. More jobs, Auxílio Brasil (Bolsa Família fatter) and favors through debt increases held some votes and offset the bitterness of inflation, for a few. But, it seems, they have achieved almost nothing else.

Food continues to be more expensive than the average price, which Bolsonaro has not taken care of. Unless there is a crazy legislative decree by Congress, the electricity bill will go up in much of the country. Health plans, which affect the most well-off population, have had bad readjustments. Etc.

It is possible that Bolsonaro’s cruel, inhuman and degrading behavior, his coup, his praise of death and killings and the string of atrocities have completely disgusted part of the electorate. The question is what kind of barbarity or economic coup he will resort to in order to avoid the risk of elimination in the first round.