In the years 2020 and 2021, investments referenced to the CDI and the Selic rate, yielded only 2.8% and 4.4% per year, respectively. As a result, applications referenced to the CDI were discarded in these two years. However, this scenario quickly changed and the CDI is once again an interesting option to be part of your portfolio.
The scenario of low return on investments referenced to the CDI began to change more intensely in the second half of last year and should continue until the beginning of the second half of this year.
According to the implicit estimate in future interest contracts traded on B3, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) should raise the Selic rate at least once more to 13.25% per year at the meeting on June 17th.
On the yield curve, the market still expects another increase at the August 4 meeting, when the Selic rate would reach 13.5% per year.
This interest level is almost double what was expected a year ago. According to a Bloomberg survey, the interest curves of 05/28/2021 indicated that the Selic rate would now be at 7.5% per year.
The surprise that changed the market’s and COPOM’s view came from inflation that was more persistent than expected.
With this higher Selic rate, investments in CDBs of medium-sized banks and private credit funds that yield between 110% and 120% of the CDI become an excellent investment alternative.
As of August, when the Selic rate reaches 13.5% per year, these investments that yield 110% to 120% of the CDI should start yielding between 14.85% and 16.2% per year.
Considering the expectation of a fall in the Selic rate, estimated by the market, from the beginning of 2023, the Selic rate accumulated over the next 12 months should still exceed 13% per year.
Therefore, for investment periods of up to one year, these investments with yields between 110% and 120% of the CDI become one of the best alternatives. They can even gain from prefixed and IPCA-referenced applications, currently available on the market.
Michael Viriato is an investment advisor and founding partner of Investor’s House
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I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
