North Dakota farmer Dwight Grotberg had wanted to plant more wheat this spring to capitalize on rising prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut grain exports and left the world short on supply of millions of tonnes of wheat.
Heavy rain has prevented Grotberg from planting as much as he intended and is hurting farmers across the state, the top US producer of spring wheat.
Instead of increasing supply, North Dakota had envisioned planting the lowest percentage ever recorded of its farmland, according to government data.
The United States is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter, and problems are hitting production at a time when the world can barely afford to lose more supplies of staple grains amid the global food crisis.
Wv1 wheat benchmark prices on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 50% to more than $13.60 a bushel (35.2 liters) after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February stopped the shipments of almost a third of the world’s exports of the product, and since then the situation has been difficult.
Worsening harvest prospects in China and parts of Europe, followed by an export ban by top producer India, have tightened inventories and exacerbated concerns about global food supplies.
The UN has warned that the impact of war on grain, oil, fuel and fertilizer could drive millions of people to famine and take years to resolve.
Washington has been urging American farmers to sow more winter wheat this fall, and the government has said it will allow planting on some environmentally sensitive land starting this fall. But drought and high prices for agricultural inputs could limit production gains, grain analysts say.
There are two wheat crops in the United States: the spring wheat, planted now, and the winter wheat, planted in the fall, which will be harvested soon. Both are in trouble.
The problems with spring wheat planting faced by farmers like Grotberg come after the drought hit the winter wheat harvest in Kansas, the biggest growing state.
Winter wheat harvest potential has dropped by more than 25% due to severe drought. Kansas farmers can ditch wheat on thousands of acres of fields this year rather than pay to harvest the drought-scorched grain.
Back in North Dakota, the problem is too much water. A historic blizzard in April left the state’s sprawling pothole-dotted fields under more than three feet of snow in some areas, triggering flooding as it melted.
Grotberg has only managed to plant about 200 hectares of wheat so far – just a quarter of the land he intended to sow – because of the wet conditions.
Seeds planted in soggy soils may have trouble sprouting or grow unevenly, while heavy farm machinery can break down in muddy fields, compact the soil, or get bogged down in mud.
Now, Grotberg’s planting window is rapidly closing.
Wheat planted too late in the spring is likely to produce less grain or face a risk of frost before the crop fully ripens.
“We’re stuck… Normally at this time we’re ending wheat planting,” Grotberg said.
Slowest spring planting since 1996
Excessively wet weather in the spring all but guaranteed that the “bread basket” in the northern plains of the US will not produce a bountiful harvest this year.
US farmers sowed just 49% of their intended area of ​​spring wheat as of May 22, equating 2014 with the slowest planting rate since 1996, according to US Department of Agriculture data.
In North Dakota, which produces about half of US spring wheat, farmers planted just 27% of their crop, the second-slowest pace in four decades.
“Some farmers still haven’t turned the wheel,” said North Dakota Commissioner of Agriculture Doug Goehring. “If North Dakota doesn’t get substantial volume, it will only wreak more havoc on the global market.”
Abandoning the withered winter wheat
In the southern plains of the United States, winter wheat farmers have received very little rain and are worried about the size of the crop — or whether the wilted plants will simply need to be felled.
A private group that visited Kansas crops in mid-May predicted the wheat crop would shrink by 28% this year, and larger-than-normal areas of fields may not be harvested due to drought damage.
About 6 percent of the state’s planted hectares would be abandoned, according to the latest estimates from the Department of Agriculture. But given the damage caused by the drought, Kansas State University wheat agronomist Romulo Lollato believes the dropout rate will be higher.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if 8%, 9%, 10%” of planted hectares are abandoned this year, Lollato said.
In neighboring Colorado, dropouts can be as high as 30%, Colorado Wheat CEO Brad Erker told attendees.
“Wheat yields are affected by the weather in May, and we had a very dry May,” said Kansas farmer Vance Ehmke. “The trend is not our friend.”
Disappearance of the wheat area
U.S. wheat production is in long-term decline as farmers favored production of corn and soybeans, which are more profitable due to demand from biofuel producers. Seed science has also increased its yields by 30% or more since 2000, improving just 6% for wheat.
Demand for biofuels will likely continue to erode wheat areas as two new soybean processing plants are due to open in eastern North Dakota, including one by Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, which will supply Marathon Petroleum with soybean oil. Corporation for renewable diesel fuel.
As the planting window in the northern plains narrows, North Dakota farmers are weighing options that include switching to soybeans, which can be sown later in the spring than wheat, or filing insurance claims for stopped planting.
“It’s very tempting to file these orders,” Grotberg said. “After we get into June, we would be lucky to get half a crop. And with the costs so high, it’s hard to bear.”
Collaborated Julie Ingwersen. Translated by Luiz Roberto M. Gonçalves.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
