The commercial dollar opened this Friday (3) higher on a day in which investors await the release of the report on job creation in the United States. At 9:28 am, the commercial dollar rose 0.56% on sale, quoted at R$ 4.8130.
Robust data on job openings or salary increases could be interpreted as signs that the policy of raising US interest rates will be maintained, favoring US Treasury applications and, consequently, the rise in the dollar.
The day before, the domestic stock market took a ride on the positive performance of the United States Stock Exchanges, after an early trading session with fluctuations in the face of a lower-than-expected quarterly Brazilian GDP (Gross Domestic Product).
The global climate more favorable to risky investments led the Ibovespa, a reference index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange, to close Thursday (2) up 0.93%, at 112,392 points.
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar dropped 0.39%, quoted at R$4.7860. The US currency also lost strength against most of the major currencies of emerging countries.
On Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 index rose 1.84% after a morning of volatility. The Nasdaq index jumped 2.69% and the Dow Jones gained 1.33%.
US labor market data from Thursday showed a slowdown in job creation in the private sector.
The ADP National Employment Report (national employment survey by the ADP consultancy), considered the preview of the official government indicator, to be released this Friday, indicated the opening of 128 thousand jobs in May, against 202 thousand in April.
The number can be read as an indication that the monetary policy of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the American central bank) will be able to stop the biggest inflation in the country in 40 years.
The monetary authority continues a process of gradual increase in the US interest rate in order to cool economic activity and, thereby, stop the escalation of prices caused by the restriction of supply due to interruptions in supply during the pandemic.
Inflation is also boosted this year by the Ukrainian War, which has driven up the cost of generating energy and food.
Fernanda Consorte, chief economist at Banco Ourinvest, considers that the fall in the exchange rate on Thursday was also influenced by US jobs data.
The relationship between the fall in the dollar and the rise in the stock markets exists because, faced with the possibility of a slowdown in interest rates, investors tend to abandon positions in assets linked to the American currency, such as Treasury bonds, to invest in the stock market.
In addition to the optimism in New York, the Brazilian market also reacted to new statements by the Chinese government about its intention to take economic measures to reduce the negative effects of its policy to combat Covid.
Hopes about the heating up of the Chinese economy stimulate rises in iron ore prices, benefiting some of the companies with the greatest weight in the Ibovespa. Vale’s most traded shares rose 1.88%.
The price of crude oil advanced 1.14%, with a barrel of Brent trading at US$ 117.61 (R$ 564.08).
Raw material remained high even after the main exporting countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced a decision to increase production more than expected to contain the escalation of prices registered since the beginning of the Ukrainian War.
Analysts at Ativa Research consider that the increase in daily production, from 430,000 to 648,000 barrels as of July, is insufficient to compensate for the absence of oil from Russia, whose export has been partially blocked by the European Union.
Despite the commodity’s high, Petrobras shares dropped 0.87%.
Regarding domestic indicators, Brazilian GDP grew 1% in the first quarter of 2022, compared to the three immediately previous months, released the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) this Thursday.
The performance was slightly below the expectations of the financial market. In the median, analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected an increase of 1.2%.
In the Brazilian interest rate market, the DI (Interbank Deposits) rate for January 2023 rose for the second day in a row, from 13,405 to 13,425 basis points, revealing the sector’s bet on the continued escalation of inflation and interest rates.
Contracts with longer maturities, between 2024 and 2029, also showed increases. Negotiated between banks, the DI rate serves as a reference for the credit sector.
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