After epidemic, use of train, bus and subway drops by up to 34% in SP

The epidemic left sequelae on public transport in the city and in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. Fewer people travel on trains and buses now than in 2019, the last full year free of the coronavirus.

In April this year, the number of passengers who boarded the state Metro lines was 34% lower than in April 2019. On municipal buses, the number of passengers transported was 26% lower. In CPTM trains, which cross the metropolitan region, 11.6% less.

There is still no research on the reason for this drop, but data on the type of passengers who use or stop using trains and buses provide clues. Elderly people, students and workers who depended on transportation vouchers travel much less. Reasonable speculation, based on indirect data, indicates that life in cities has changed, with more telecommuting, use of digital services and e-commerce shopping.

“I hear a lot of people say that the fear of infection drove people away from public transport. From the data we have, it wasn’t one of the main reasons even during the worst of the epidemic, let alone now, when it should be a marginal reason. social and economic, in people’s behavior, and crisis, and that changed public transport”, says the president of Metrô, Silvani Pereira.

The level of economic activity and the severity of the epidemic contrast with the relative emptying of urban trains and buses.

Almost all official restrictions on economic and social activities due to the virus were lifted in March. The number of Covid deaths in April was only higher than in March 2020, at the beginning of the epidemic.

The number of people employed in the metropolitan area is 6% higher than at the beginning of 2019; retail sales and the volume of services in the state are also higher. The data are from the IBGE.

Pedro Moro, president of CPTM, also draws attention to the change in the profile of passengers. He points out that the company will only make a kind of accurate census of the situation in August.

Among CPTM payers, the reduction in the number of passengers compared to April 2019 is just over 3%; among those who travel for free, still 51%, according to statistics compiled by Sheet. In the “free” group, as the jargon goes, about 75% are elderly and another 20% are people with reduced mobility, explains Moro. In the case of the Metro, the number of elderly passengers and those with reduced mobility dropped by 61%.

Moro, from CPTM, and Silvani, from Metrô, note that the lower frequency of the elderly is partly due to the change in the age limit for free travel, which was lowered from 65 to 60 years old in February 2021.

It should also be noted that, in the state of São Paulo, at least 170,000 people over the age of 20 have died from Covid.

Low wages, the worst level in a decade, and the quality of jobs seem to make travel difficult. On the Metro, the number of passengers with “Bilhete Único-Vale Transporte” decreased by 36%.

The number of passengers with student tickets on the Metro also dropped significantly: 60% in two years. Part of this may be due to the increase in the number of online courses or classes, says Silvani. For Moro, it is possible that the crisis has reduced the number of students in private colleges. It was not possible to obtain recent numbers from educational institutions.

What is the reason for the big difference between CPTM (which lost less than 12%) and Metro (34% drop in the number of embarked)? Moro, from CPTM, says that those who use the company’s trains have a different profile. These are longer trips and the alternatives are more expensive and time consuming. In the city, with shorter trips, it is possible to resort to other modes of transport.

It is a possibility, says Francisco Christovam, president of SPUrbanuss (Sindicato das Empresas de Transporte Urbano de Passageiros de São Paulo), of buses, which still lose 26% of the total number of passengers transported, from April 2019 to 2022. different account: compares the number of passengers in the months after the epidemic with the average for the first half of March 2020, a loss of 20%.

Christovam says that on the outskirts of São Paulo, the occupation of buses has returned to pre-pandemic normal. In the expanded center and close surroundings, no. “In the part of the city where people have more income and options, there may have been a more lasting change in behavior,” he says.

That is, in the richest center of São Paulo, there would be more possibility of teleworking, more recourse to own vehicle, carpooling and even bicycles. Many people would have gotten used to resorting to virtual meetings, services and purchases.

It is also a hypothesis of economist Ciro Biderman, professor at FGV-SP, researcher at the Center for Studies on Public Sector Policy and Economics, a scholar on the subject and who was chief of staff at the São Paulo Transit Company (SPTrans) from 2013 to 2015.

Biderman notes that specific research data is lacking and notes that the epidemic is not over, which continues to affect behavior. It is not enough that there is an alternative means of transport for changes in habits and preferences to occur, but also the experience of a new way of getting around, a march forced by the epidemic.

“It is possible that people have learned to use other modes [de transporte] because of the new environment of the epidemic, perhaps even because of the reduced frequency of buses, which needs to be researched. Among people with higher incomes or also for shorter trips, there may have been a return to the private car, use of motorcycle, app, ride or bicycle. They tried the novelty and maybe they won’t come back [para o transporte público]”.

He also recalls “obvious hypotheses, waiting for studies”: change in the behavior of the elderly, teleworking, more digital and online life.

Moro, from CPTM, says he has noticed an increase in the provision of services such as Poupatempo in cities in the metropolitan region and more use of INSS online services, for example. In fact, the number of Poupatempo stations in the cities of Greater São Paulo has increased since 2019, as have its digital services. He also recalls that the elderly, more subject to the dangers of Covid, can resort more to services and commerce close to home. He tells of his mother, who at age 86 stopped going to the grocery store to shop online.

Marcelo Solimeo, chief economist at the São Paulo Trade Association, says the “e-commerce hypothesis is plausible”, but data is lacking. There may be more virtual sales, which does not necessarily imply fewer people walking through physical stores.

The share of e-commerce sales value in total retail sales (according to IBGE figures) increased. It was 5.1% in April 2019, it was 6% in February 2020 and reached 13.2% in March this year, the most recent data, according to the MCC-ENET study, prepared by the partnership between Neotrust and camara-e.net.