US faces its own technology in Russian weapons

With magnifying glasses, screwdrivers and the delicate touches of a soldering iron, two men from an investigation team tracking weapons carefully disassembled Russian ammunition and equipment captured in Ukraine.

During a week-long visit to Ukraine last month, investigators dismantled all advanced Russian military equipment they had access to, such as small distance-measuring laser sensors and cruise missile guidance systems.

The researchers, invited by the Ukrainian security service to independently analyze captured Russian advanced equipment, found that almost all of it included components supplied by companies based in the United States and the European Union: chips, circuit boards, motors, antennas and other equipment.

“Advanced Russian weapons and communications systems were built around Western chips,” said Damien Spleeters, one of the investigators at Conflict Armament Research, which identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition. He added that Russian companies had enjoyed unrestricted access to Western technology for decades.

US officials have long prided themselves on their country’s ability to provide technology and munitions to the rest of the planet. But since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, the United States has faced an unpleasant reality: The tools Russian forces have been using to wage their war are often powered by American innovation.

The United States and dozens of other countries have resorted to export restrictions to cut shipments of advanced technology, which is hampering Russia’s ability to produce weapons to replace those destroyed in the war, according to representatives of European and US governments. .

On Thursday, the Biden administration announced new sanctions and restrictions against Russia and Belarus, adding 71 organizations to a government list banning them from acquiring advanced technology. The US Treasury Department also announced sanctions against a yacht manager that serves Russian oligarchs.

While some analysts have urged caution against jumping to conclusions, saying the measures have not yet reached their full effect, the Biden administration calls them a success. Since Western allies announced extensive restrictions on exports of semiconductors, computers, lasers, telecommunications equipment and other goods in February, Russia has struggled to obtain chips to replenish its supply of high-precision guided munitions, according to a senior US government official, who, like most of those interviewed for this article, asked that his name not be mentioned as he was talking about intelligence matters.

On Tuesday, when asked whether the Russian military was being crippled by input shortages, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who oversees export controls, declared that the answer was “definitely yes”.

“US exports to Russia in the categories on which we have export controls are down 90% from Feb 24 to now,” Raimondo said. “With that, yes, the effect is paralyzing.”

The restrictions block the direct export of technology and from dozens of partner countries to Russia. But they also go beyond the traditional sanctions imposed by the US government in wartime, by imposing limitations on certain high-tech goods that are manufactured in other parts of the world but use US machinery, software or designs. That means countries that are not part of the US-Europe sanctions coalition also need to play by the rules, or they could find themselves subject to sanctions.

Russia has stopped publishing monthly data on international trade since the invasion, but customs data from its major trading partners show that shipments of essential components and parts have dropped sharply. According to data compiled by Matthew Klein, an economic researcher who studies the effects of export controls, Russian imports of manufactured goods from the nine major economies for which data are available fell by 51% in April, compared with the September-February average. .

Russia is one of the world’s biggest arms exporters, especially to India, and its industry depends on imported inputs. In 2018, Russian suppliers satisfied only about half of the country’s needs for equipment and services for the armed forces, including transport equipment, computers, optical equipment, machinery, laminated metal and other goods, according to OECD data ( Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) compiled by Klein.

The rest of the equipment and services used by Russia were imported, with about a third coming from the United States, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, Australia and other partner governments that together imposed sanctions on Moscow.

US government officials say that, along with the wide variety of other sanctions that restrict or discourage trade relations, export controls have proven to be highly effective. They pointed to Russian tank factories, which have licensed workers and face component shortages. The US government has also received reports that the Russian military is struggling to find replacement parts for satellites, aeronautical electronics and night vision systems, respondents said.

Technological restrictions have also hurt other sectors of Russia’s economy, according to US government officials. Equipment in the oil and natural gas sector has deteriorated, maintenance on tractors and heavy vehicles produced by Caterpillar and John Deere has been suspended, and up to 70% of commercial aircraft operated by Russian airlines are down because they no longer receive spare parts. from Airbus and Boeing, according to US officials.

But some experts urge caution. Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the CNA research institute in Virginia, expressed skepticism over claims that export controls had forced some tank factories and other companies in the Russian defense products sector to temporarily close their doors. .

“There was not enough evidence to substantiate the information that there are problems in the Russian defense industry,” he said. It’s still too early in the war to expect significant supply chain problems in Russian defense industries, he said, and sources for initial claims in this regard are unclear.

US administration officials say the Russian government and companies have been looking for ways to circumvent controls, but so far have been largely unsuccessful. The Biden administration has threatened to penalize any company that helps Russia circumvent sanctions by cutting off its access to American technology.

In an interview last month, Raimondo said the United States was not seeing any systematic efforts to circumvent sanctions by any country, including China, which sided with Russia before and during the invasion of Ukraine. Some companies have decided on their own not to get involved with Russia, despite the country “trying as much as possible to circumvent the actions” of the global coalition of allies that imposed export controls, Raimondo said.

“The world knows how seriously we, and our allies, are determined to crack down on any violations,” she said. “There will be real consequences for any company or country that tries to evade our export controls.”

Data on Chinese international trade also show that most companies in the country are respecting the restrictions. While China has continued to buy Russian energy, Chinese exports to Russia have dropped sharply since the invasion.

But Spleeters said the Russian military has used creative methods to circumvent past restrictions on technology imports — using private companies, civilian distributors or third-party countries to buy foreign goods, for example — and may use the same methods to circumvent restrictions. sanctions.

Spleeters’ research revealed efforts by some agents to disguise the presence of Western technology in Russian equipment. During their visit to the Ukrainian capital, Spleeters and his colleague dismantled three Azart encrypted radios, which provide secure communication channels to the Russian military.

They found that the first two contained chips on which the manufacturing marks had been carefully erased, apparently as part of an effort to disguise their origin. But inside the third radio, they found an identical chip that had escaped Russian censors, and found that the part had been manufactured by a US-based company. (Spleeters said his organization would not release the names of manufacturers until he has sent out requests for information to each company, asking how their products ended up in the hands of the Russian military.)

Spleeters said it was unclear who had altered the markings on the components, or when the chips had been delivered to Russia, although he said the attempt to disguise the origin was intentional. In 2014, after the Russian invasion of Crimea, the United States imposed restrictions, largely unilateral, on the transfer to Russia of high-tech items that could bolster the country’s military capabilities.

“The pieces were carefully erased, perhaps with a tool, to erase a line of information,” Spleeters said. “Someone knew exactly what they were doing.”