Despite Alckmin, agribusiness resists Lula and celebrates gains under Bolsonaro

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In line with President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), representatives of the agricultural sector believe that the articulation of former governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) will not reduce the segment’s resistance to the candidacy of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

Alckmin, candidate for vice on the ticket with PT, was chosen to bridge the gap with ruralists and attract votes in the terrain of strong Bolsonarista tendency.

The slate’s strategy is to explore Lula’s connection with former senator and former minister Blairo Maggi, one of the world’s largest soybean producers. On another front, use Alckmin’s relationship with former deputy Nilson Leitão, president of Instituto Pensar Agropecuária and consultant for the CNA (Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil).

As governor of São Paulo, Alckmin remained close to agribusiness and, in 2018, ran for the presidency of the PSDB on a ticket with former senator Ana Amélia (currently in the PSD), who has dialogue with the rural segment.

The pro-PT onslaught, so far, has been considered timid by interlocutors of the ruralists. But even in the event of a greater effort to attract the agribusiness segment, leaders discard the sector’s support for Lula-Alckmin’s candidacy.

Members of the ruralist caucus and businessmen list a series of measures adopted in the Bolsonaro government that expanded the positive assessment of the current management in the countryside, despite the mishaps related to the country’s image abroad due to the environmental issue.

The increase in public resources available for credit to the sector is one of these factors. And the trend is to continue on the rise.

The Ministry of Agriculture and the ministers of Palácio do Planalto are trying to implement a 2022/23 crop plan, to be announced this month, of R$330 billion – the impact of this on the federal budget would be around R$22 billion, used for equalization of fees. In the previous Safra Plan, these amounts were R$251 billion and R$13 billion.

In addition, Caixa has also reinforced its operations in the rural credit area and the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program (PSR) reached a record in 2021, with almost 218,000 insurance policies contracted.

The president also reaps the dividends of the rise in agricultural commodities, which raise the value of sales abroad. This year, for example, agribusiness exports reached a record level of US$ 14.53 billion for the month of March.

Changes in environmental legislation also boost Bolsonaro’s performance among ruralists.

In this regard, not even the fact that Alckmin was responsible for raising Ricardo Salles to the command of the Ministry of the Environment in the Bolsonaro government has served as a mitigating factor for the segment to migrate its support to the PT ticket.

Salles headed the Secretary of the Environment in São Paulo under Alckmin’s government. In Bolsonaro’s ministerial meeting in 2020, he was the author of the expression “pass the cattle”, in reference to the intention to loosen environmental rules in favor of the ruralist agenda.

“Alckmin has more dialogue [no agronegócio do] that many there. But, in our opinion, Alckmin does not vote for Lula, nor does he take votes from the other side”, said deputy Sérgio Souza (MDB-PR), president of the FPA (Parliamentary Front for Agriculture).

The ruralist caucus, one of the most influential in Congress and which brings together about 300 parliamentarians, is part of Bolsonaro’s support base.

“The agro [agronegócio] never had so much money”, added Souza, justifying his support for the president’s re-election.

“There is the issue of resources and also the Bolsonaro period removed a series of ties that were ideological. The speech itself regarding the environmental issue was relaxed. Brazil is a country that preserves the environment. We have data on that”, said the deputy. Alceu Moreira (MDB-RS), who led the ruralist caucus in the early years of the Bolsonaro government.

For ruralists, the current resistance to the PT ticket focuses mainly on the figure of Lula and his speeches aimed at militancy, but they extrapolate to the radical surroundings of the ex-president —such as PSOL and Rede—, who is harshly critical of the sector.

“It’s a risk is he [Lula] want to make an ideological government, different from what his two terms were like”, declared Moreira.

In contrast to Bolsonaro, the PT campaign has highlighted promises in the environmental area. In a speech last week, Lula defended that environmental protection bodies emptied in the Bolsonaro government go through a recovery process and said that, if elected, he will not make concessions on issues of protection of demarcated areas, such as indigenous and forest reserves.

“The agricultural sector and the bench are right-wing, liberal agenda. We have agendas that, in our view, unlock [a economia]. In the case of the demarcation of indigenous lands, we do not want to take away the rights of the Indians, we want the Indians to have the capacity to produce, generate employment and income,” said Souza.

Despite praising Alckmin’s political career, ruralists recall the history of friction and clashes between the former governor and Lula. “They exchanged statements and accusations. How to trust a relationship like that?”, questioned the leader of the PL in the Senate, Wellington Fagundes (MT).

Members of the agricultural bench in Congress believe that the group will be able to maintain the same level of 300 parliamentarians or even increase that number after the October election.

Despite Lula leading the polls of voting intentions, ruralists are betting that the scenario is now different from that seen in 2018, when the wave of renewal overthrew influential members of the sector, such as Nilson Leitão, who started to work in the interconnection of politics with the private sector.

“We think that the political moment, with the more politicized voter, favors this conservative wing more than the scenario of four years ago”, predicts the president of the FPA.

For deputy Pedro Lupion (PP-PR), the ruralist base is, in large majority, decided to support Bolsonaro. “I don’t see how the PT can reverse this.”

However, in the event of an eventual Lula-Alckmin government, agribusiness representatives say that the sector will move towards power and seek the support of Palácio do Planalto for the segment.

Alckmin was contacted, but declined to comment on the report.

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