After successive price adjustments, the weight of fuel for vehicles in Brazil’s official inflation index broke the 8% range in May, according to data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
Last month, the item came to account for 8.13% of the IPCA (National Index of Consumer Prices). In April, the percentage was 7.96%.
The increase signals that fuels have been impacting Brazilians’ expenses more in recent months.
Two years ago, in May 2020, the initial phase of the pandemic, the weight was considerably lower, at 5.41%. In the same range of 2021, the share was at 6.84%.
Gasoline approaches 7%
In the IPCA, the vehicle fuel item is made up of four sub-items: gasoline, ethanol, diesel oil and vehicular gas.
The largest individual weight, by far, is that of gasoline, since it directly affects the drivers’ pocket.
In May this year, the sub-item accounted for 6.81% of the IPCA. Two years ago, in the same period of 2020, the percentage of gasoline was much lower, at 4.59%. The slice was at 5.82% in the fifth month of last year.
Gasoline is also the sub-item with the highest individual weight among all 377 that make up the IPCA.
Ethanol, in turn, accounted for 0.95% of the IPCA in May 2022. Diesel’s share was 0.29%, and vehicle gas, 0.08%.
Diesel usually causes indirect impacts on final consumers of goods and services, because it is used to transport goods and passengers.
That is, when it rises, it ends up putting pressure on freight costs for various products, such as food and bus tickets.
Carestia is a headache for the government
The advance of fuels reflects the escalation of oil in the international market, which gained strength after the beginning of the Ukrainian War, and the exchange rate pressure.
Both factors are taken into account by Petrobras when setting prices at refineries. When the values ​​advance at the state-owned company’s facilities, the tendency is for transfers along the production chain, to the pumps at the gas stations.
With the elections approaching, the escalation of inflation became a headache for President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
The shortage of products such as fuel is seen by members of Bolsonaro’s campaign as the main obstacle to reelection.
This Thursday (16), the chairman of Petrobras’ board of directors, Marcio Weber, called the collegiate body to an extraordinary meeting to discuss fuel prices.
The meeting comes in a horizon in which the values ​​of gasoline and, mainly, of diesel are well below the international quotations.
Thus, there is expectation of new adjustments by Petrobras. However, the state-owned company is under pressure to hold back increases as the federal government tries to pass a package of measures to lower prices on the eve of the elections.
Proposals under debate
On Wednesday (15), Congress concluded the vote on a bill that establishes a ceiling for ICMS tax rates on fuel.
Next week, parliamentarians should debate the so-called PEC on Fuels. The proposal authorizes the government to zero federal taxes on gasoline and compensate states that decide to reduce ICMS on diesel and cooking gas.
Analysts fear the impacts of the measures on public accounts. On the other hand, part of the truck drivers, a category contrary to Petrobras’ pricing policy, considers the government’s stance to deal with inflation to be insufficient. Part of the entities that represent drivers has been threatening to strike in the face of high prices.
In Petrobras’ view, fuel prices that are out of line with the international market can cause shortages in Brazil.
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