Despite the high Selic, don’t put all your eggs in fixed income

​With the new Selic rate hike promoted this Wednesday (15) by the BC (Central Bank), to 13.25% per year, investment analysts are unanimous in pointing out that the fixed income class becomes —even more— attractive to investors looking for above-double-digit yields during the second half of the year.

With inflation still at high levels, even with the effort of the monetary authority, public and private bonds indexed to the IPCA, which offer a real interest rate, that is, above inflation, today in the range of 5% to 7% per year , are among the main recommendations of experts.

Fixed-rate securities with nominal rates of return between 13% and 15% per year are also pointed out as good options to be carried to maturity, given the expectation that the Selic rate will not remain at the current high level at which it is and go through some adjustment down a little further on.

However, although fixed income is by far the biggest preference of market professionals at the moment, they also emphasize the importance of the investor maintaining some level of diversification in the portfolio.

Stocks, real estate funds and investments abroad, albeit with a greater dose of caution, should not be raffled from portfolios, although they need patience and a long-term vision to deliver positive returns to investors.

According to Josias de Matos, strategist at the Toro Investimentos platform, fixed-rate government and bank bonds with rates of return between 13% and 15% per year have drawn a lot of attention, offering investors a level of return that has not been seen in the market for a long time. . “These are opportunities that are very worthwhile to be captured by the investor”, says the specialist.

On the Tesouro Direto platform, fixed rate papers maturing in 2033 offered a nominal rate of return around 12.9% on Friday (15). On the other hand, data from the Yubb platform indicate that fixed-rate CDBs (Certificates of Bank Deposits) from medium-sized institutions such as BMG and C6 Bank offer investors rates close to 15% per year, with a term of one to two years.

Matos adds that, in the case of inflation-indexed bonds, it is now possible to find government-issued securities on the Treasury Direct platform with real interest rates of around 5.5% per year. Among private securities indexed to the IPCA, rates are even higher, reaching in some cases up to 7%, points out the Toro strategist.

The specialist also recalls that, if the investor opts for fixed income securities issued by financial institutions, he also has the protection of the FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund) up to the limit of R$ 250 thousand per CPF, for the set of investments in each financial institution or conglomerate.

A survey by Anefac (National Association of Finance Executives) indicates that CDBs of medium-sized banks represent the most advantageous option among the main alternatives today in fixed income, returning to the investor who invest R$ 1,000.00 within a year the value of R$ 120.24, deducting the IR at source. In this case, the interest considered is 14.58% per year.

IR-free fixed income stands out among peers

Economist and fixed income specialist at the Blue3 investment advisors office, Bruna Centeno also says that, within the category of private credit, investments exempt from IR (Income Tax) are also a good option for investors’ portfolios.

This is the case with CRIs (Receivables for Real Estate), CRAs (Certificates of Agribusiness Receivables), as well as LCIs (Real Estate Letters of Credit), LCAs (Agribusiness Letters of Credit) and LIGs (Guaranteed Real Estate Letters). Incentive infrastructure debentures are also tax-exempt.

A survey by the Yubb platform shows that, with the new Selic high, incentivized debentures offer the best estimated real yield, followed by LCIs and LCAs.

Data from the Ministry of Economy show that incentivized debenture issuances reached the figure of R$ 6.3 billion in the first quarter of the year, with emphasis on the energy and transport sectors. The average term of the operations was around 11.6 years, with remuneration around IPCA plus 7% per year.

Allocation on the Stock Exchange must be considered for a long-term horizon

As for that investor who has the financial conditions to keep the money invested for a long period, and the stomach to withstand the characteristic bumps of the stock market, the Toro strategist says that now may be a good time to make some allocation in assets of higher risk, as in the Stock Exchange. Faced with recent volatility in the domestic and international markets, the Ibovespa index has accumulated a drop of approximately 21% in the 12-month period up to June 15th.

Matos quotes a phrase attributed to the English banker Nathan Rothschild, who lived in the 19th century, according to which the investor should “buy at the sound of cannons and sell at the sound of trumpets”.

In other words, in times of high volatility and uncertainty, when most investors are apprehensive and indiscriminately dispose of shares, that is when opportunities to build positions with a long-term horizon usually appear, says the expert.

The Toro strategist also says that sectors on the stock exchange that have been hit over the last few months in an environment of weak economy, high inflation and rising interest rates, such as retail and construction, should deliver very attractive returns for investors who have the patience to keep the papers in the portfolio for a horizon of five to ten years.

As for those who have a less daring financial profile and prefer a more moderate return, but also a little less volatile, Matos points out the large banks and commodity exporters as sectors that tend to navigate better through the scenario full of uncertainty in the coming months.

Agricultural funds and global allocation on the radar

Co-founder of the investment advisors office InvestSmart, Bruno Hora says that, in the conversations he has had with clients, the investment in fixed income naturally stands out.

In particular, in the case of fixed-rate and inflation-indexed, which, in both cases, offer rates of return considered quite attractive, and which may still have an additional benefit in a scenario of falling interest rates a little further ahead. This is because, when contracting a certain rate of return when investing in a fixed income security, and, after the acquisition, the interest practiced in the market declines, the value of the security automatically increases, an effect known in the jargon as mark-to-market. In the Focus bulletin, economists project a Selic rate of 9.25% at the end of 2023.

Hora also says that, among investors with a bolder risk profile, in addition to stocks, real estate funds have been an increasingly recurring topic in conversations. “As the Selic rate rise cycle comes to an end, it may make room for a more positive performance of real estate funds, which are at attractive prices.”

In this case, the firm’s co-founder says that the relatively recent funds that are dedicated to exploring debts in the agricultural market, the Fiagros (Investment Funds in Agroindustrial Chains), have aroused increasing interest on the part of investors.

The rise in the basic interest rate also favors interest in agricultural funds, given that one of the main targets on the managers’ radar are CRAs (Agribusiness Receivables Certificates). These assets are usually indexed to the CDI. Therefore, as the Selic goes up, the yield offered by the certificates also increases.

Also according to the InvestSmart specialist, even in the face of the turbulent international scenario, with pressured inflation in the United States and high interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed, US central bank), having a part of the portfolio exposed to the dollar and to investments abroad, it is important for investors to have some level of geographic diversification, so as not to be 100% focused on the Brazil risk. “Regardless of the moment, there is no healthy investment portfolio if it does not have a part of the allocation in dollars”, says Hora.