Analysts maintain a positive view of Petrobras shares

The resignation of the president of Petrobras this Monday (20) brought strong volatility to the company’s shares on the stock exchange. The shares even had their trading suspended, operated on a decline during the morning, but reversed the trend and began to rise throughout the afternoon. At the end of the session, Petrobras’ common shares (PETR3) rose 0.87% to R$30.19. Preferred papers (PETR4) advanced 1.14%, quoted at R$ 27.62.

Market analysts estimate that the volatility of the state company’s shares should still remain high, at least until the elections at the end of the year. However, they also say that stock prices on the stock exchange remain attractive for investors who have the stomach to withstand the ups and downs of shares, and have a long-term vision.

According to Waldir Morgado, partner at manager Nexgen Capital, despite the short-term noise, the assessment is that the company’s share prices are still “very attractive”, especially considering the robust quarterly results that the company has presented.

He adds that, in the short term, the tendency is for volatility to continue impacting the oil company’s shares on the stock exchange, especially if the price of oil rises again and the real depreciates against the dollar.

Morgado calculates that the lag in the price of gasoline in the local market is currently around 5%, reaching close to 14% in the case of diesel.

“In any case, Petrobras has made a very good distribution of dividends, with a dividend yield [proporção dos dividendos distribuídos em relação ao preço da ação] around 20%”, says the partner at Nexgen Capital.

This Monday, the state-owned company made the payment of the first installment of dividends referring to the results of the first quarter, in the amount of R$ 24.2 billion. “We may see new noises in the short term, but we see that, from a long-term point of view, Petrobras remains a good action to have in the portfolio.”

Senso Investimentos analyst João Frota Salles says that the resignation of Petrobras president José Mauro Coelho should have been made even longer ago, in favor of the market and Petrobras, in order to minimize political clashes around the company.

In any case, the executive’s departure, widely expected by the market, tends to dampen the spirits of the debate, says Salles.

“The biggest problem was the threats of CPIs, export taxes or extra taxes, which seem to be more distant now”, adds the analyst, who emphasizes that the new chapter involving the oil company makes it clear that the government was victorious in this round, along with center allies.

Salles also says he works with a baseline scenario in which Petrobras’ fuel pricing policy will remain intact and protected by statute. “Petrobras shares reacted well today and are very attractive, especially when compared to international peers”, says the Senso analyst.

In the same vein, Ilan Arbetman, an analyst at Ativa Investimentos, sees that the company’s shares are quite discounted in comparison with market peers.

Arbetman says that Petrobras has been living with the majority shareholder’s dissatisfaction with the prices of derivatives in the country for a long time, which even culminated in the departure of previous presidents – Roberto Castello Branco, Joaquim Silva and Luna and now José Mauro Coelho.

The Ativa analyst also says that oil prices should remain high over the next few months, and that the State-owned Companies Law tends to prevent a greater change in the company’s management.

“Because of the political bias, greater volatility is expected in the paper, but, for those who buy to carry, we see an opportunity in Petrobras. Especially with this level of dividends that the company must distribute this year”, says Arbetman.