Pre-salt production under the sharing regime to reach 3.5 million bpd in 2031

Oil production in the pre-salt under the sharing regime should reach an average of approximately 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2031, according to data published this Wednesday (24) by the PPSA (Pré-Sal Petroleo), responsible for representing the Union in these contracts.

The volume will be the equivalent of two thirds of the national production estimated by the Energy Research Company (EPE) for that year, according to the estimates, released during the 4th Petroleum Pre-Salt Technical Forum, broadcast by the EPBR agency.

In 2022, the first year of the period analyzed in this edition of the study, the portion of oil to which the Federal Government will be entitled will be 24 thousand bpd. As early as 2031, production is estimated at around 1 million bpd.

“Today, four contracts are in production and, in September, our last figure, the Union’s share was 11,000 barrels of oil per day. We are talking about having one million barrels per day in ten years. And most importantly: the study predicts that 70% of the production accumulated until 2031 will come from areas that already have a declaration of commerciality. The scenario is very promising”, said the president of PPSA, Eduardo Gerk.

In total, the study pointed out that the production of sharing contracts should add up to 8.2 billion barrels of oil in ten years, with 1.5 billion barrels of oil destined for the Union.

In this context, the PPSA estimates to raise around US$ 116 billion (R$ 650 billion, at the current price), between 2022 and 2031, with the sale of 1.5 billion barrels of oil that the Union will be entitled to in the sharing contracts of production.

Collection and Investments

The study also projects that by 2031 the production sharing contracts will generate a collection of US$ 92 billion (R$ 515 billion) in royalties and US$ 77 billion (R$ 431 billion) in IRPJ (Personal Income Tax Legal) and CSLL (Social Contribution on Net Income).

Adding the perspective of collecting US$ 116 billion from the sale of the Union’s oil portion, the total estimated revenue for the public coffers is US$ 285 billion (R$ 1.6 trillion) in ten years.

For the development of activities in the Pre-Salt Polygon, investments of US$ 99 billion (R$ 555 billion) are planned until 2031. Of this total, US$ 33 billion (R$ 185 billion) should be invested in production platforms; US$37 billion (R$207 billion) in wells; and US$29 billion (R$162 billion) in subsea systems.

In all, it is estimated that 27 FPSO-type platform vessels and 416 wells will be contracted.