Bolsonaro’s loyal voter should not be affected by harassment allegations, says researcher

Accusations of sexual harassment involving the former president of Caixa Pedro Guimarães, a first-time ally of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), should have a moderate effect on the female electorate, assesses social scientist Débora Messenberg, from the Institute of Social Sciences at UnB (University of Brasilia).

The case generates embarrassment and reinforces the aversion to Bolsonaro already observed in part of this electorate. However, among the voters who still make up the approximately 30% that support the president, little should change, says the researcher in an interview with Sheet.

“For those women who have so far not failed to adhere to the moral principles that Bolsonaro supposedly defends or that they effectively align with, I think this will not be so dramatic.”

The most harmful effect, assesses Messenberg, should be more visible among the undecided and voters who are no longer so comfortable with Bolsonaro’s positions. “For the embarrassed electorate, this might — and I hope it creates — some sort of doubt.”

The president has made a number of misogynistic statements, Messenberg says, in addition to frequently reaffirming that his advisers and other senior ranks are people he trusts. “It’s not surprising that those in his government share a certain worldview close to his,” he says.

When we consider Pedro Guimarães’ connection with the government and his proximity to the president, can the denunciations have an impact on the female electorate? It is yet another situation, not only of embarrassment, but of clarity of the position of the President of the Republic himself in the face of a series of issues related to gender, in an expanded way, and particularly in relation to women. With regard to the female electorate, it already suffers a very high rejection and this should be confirmed.

But I think it’s also important to be clear that Bolsonaro’s electorate is built on other references. He has an electorate that, even after all these scandals, after the pandemic, after a government that effectively did very little, and with 33 million hungry, remains at 30%. [de intenção de voto]. His constituency transcends these concrete issues.

Is it possible that there will be some impact on the women who already make up his constituency? It depends on the level of engagement. What we consider to be [apoiador] The root are those who are, regardless of Bolsonaro’s action, in the perspective of idealization, and continue to project him as a leader. It is the fascination that far-right leaders exercise over part of the electorate.

For those women who have so far not failed to adhere to the moral principles that Bolsonaro supposedly defends, or to which they effectively align themselves, I think this will not be so dramatic.

Surely he will say that this is an intrigue by the opposition or even that he has already taken an attitude and that Guimarães is going to resign or will be fired, ‘I don’t accept this type of situation’. And also because it is not a search for the truth that this electorate expects, they always want a performance, a continuous projection in relation to this leadership.

But I believe that for those who are in doubt, or what we call the ’embarrassed Bolsonaro electorate’, this can — and I hope it creates — some kind of doubt, or at least increase the embarrassment. Today, a lot of work is being done in this perspective, we are realizing that the electorate is no longer so comfortable saying that they vote for him. Perhaps for this portion it can bring some implication.

Bolsonaro voters are seen as conservative and averse to identity or gender issues. How can this type of subject, an alleged case of sexual harassment, reverberate in this conservative citizen? It will depend on how this is going to be handled, on which narrative the government is going to use for its defence. Regarding the moral agenda, I don’t know what narrative he will build, but apparently he will push the person away [Guimarães] who was by his side the whole time.

Certainly, at the very least, he’s known the executive, and has been for a long time. His story, and it’s already out in the press, is that he’s had this misogynistic stance for a long time.

When he [Bolsonaro] says he used the apartment here in Brasília to ‘eat people’, that’s really what is expected of a person who has this type of discourse in relation to their closest references, the most direct positions, who have and share this worldview similar.

What does this type of accusation, involving the president of a major public bank, say about us as a society? Since this government took over, we have been experiencing significant setbacks on all agendas. Whether from the perspective of science, whether in the progressive agendas related to women, the advances of the feminist movement and LGBTQIA+, we have been experiencing a continuous setback for three and a half years, but this is not a peculiarity of Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro is part of a process of advancement of the far right in the world. Human life goes in cycles, it goes backwards. And the far-right governments are there to show that they support what Umberto Eco calls eternal fascism.

It is these people in general who adhere to miraculous discourses, of social transformation, and reactionary discourses that promise a return to the idealized moment. These people have always existed.

It’s amazing what we’ve been through in the last month. Genivaldo’s story [homem torturado e morto em um carro da Polícia Rodoviária Federal]Bruno Araújo and Dom Phillips [indigenista e jornalista assassinados no Amazonas]and a number of other barbaric cases, and it hasn’t changed that 30% he has.

Because, in fact, this is not an interest. People who align themselves with this far-right discourse are not concerned with the truth, but with the reaffirmation of their worldviews.