Commodity Shuttle: Smaller US soybean area benefits Brazilian producer

The new figures for the planting area and the supply and demand for soybeans in the United States are a relief for Brazilian producers.

The USDA (Department of Agriculture) reduced, this Thursday (30), the soybean area to 35.7 million hectares in the country, 1.1 million less than the department forecast last March.

Based on this number of areas and the productivity trend, AgRural estimates a production of 122.7 million tons of soybeans in the United States in the 2022/23 harvest.

Taking into account this production estimate and the consumption data predicted by Usda, Daniele Siqueira, an analyst at AgRural, estimates ending stocks of only 4 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest. A very low volume, according to her.

If confirmed, this volume would last for only 12 days of consumption, a level that is close to the lowest ever recorded in the North American market. In 2013/14, ending stocks were enough for just 10 days of consumption.

Usda announced that it will still carry out a new survey of the planting area in the states of North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota, which had more delayed planting.

Daniele believes that this new survey should not change the current data much. This means that, from now on, any more adverse weather conditions in July and August will affect productivity, influencing oilseed prices.

On July 12, USDA will review the supply and demand numbers for soybeans, but, as it always does, it should not release figures that indicate a strong change in the scenario. This will be done with occasional adjustments during the business year.

This picture of a smaller crop in the United States favors Brazilian exports. Although the Brazilian harvest was smaller, at the end of May, producers had more soybeans on their hands than in the same period last year.

Soybean crushing accelerated in the first months of the year, resulting in record exports of soybean meal and oil, caused by the good prices of the products in the international market.

Daniele says that Brazilian exports are estimated at 77 million tons this year. Due to the sluggishness of sales, producers will have soybeans to sell at the end of the year.

Usda’s figures indicate a calmer picture for corn. The area grows by 200,000 tonnes, compared to March estimates, rising to 36.4 million tonnes, with a potential of 368.4 million tonnes.

Brazilian producers would benefit from a possible climatic problem in American crops in July and August.

If that happens, importers will have to resort to Brazil and Argentina, since Ukraine will have no product to offer, due to the war with Russia.

Despite the reduction in soybean planting area, the Chicago market closed down this Thursday. The forecast of good rains in the coming days caused a drop in the prices of the main commodities.

Soybean’s November contrast, the most liquid, dropped to $14.58 a bushel (27.2 kg), down 1.4%. Corn for December fell 5.1%, and wheat for July dropped 5.1%.

In the domestic market, soybeans were quoted at R$ 187.50 per bag in Cascavel (PR), up from R$ 184 a week ago. Corn fell to R$ 85 in the same city in Paraná, below the R$ 87.50 last week, according to a survey by AgRural.

weight in the pocket Higher costs and lower milk collection in the field will continue to affect the income of producers and consumers.

Weight in the pocket 2 In June, producers received 5.3% more for the product they had supplied to the industries in May. This year, the real high already accumulates 21%, according to Cepea.

more meat The average weight of the replacement calf, sold in Mato Grosso do Sul, is at 213 kilos per head this year, a record level.

more meat 2 Despite the high production costs, Brazilian cattle ranchers have been investing in technology. The result is an increase in the supply of replacement animals and, above all, a heavier cattle, say Cepea technicians.

Soy The biggest drop in oilseed profitability occurred in Barreiras (BA), according to a survey by MacroSector Consulting.

soy 2 The consultancy chose an important city in the production of the oilseed in the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul.

soy 3 Barreiras, in Bahia, had the biggest drop in profitability: it dropped to 27% last March. In the same period of 2021, profitability had been 57%.

agricultural GDP In the second quarter, this year’s rate should evolve 0.7% compared to the same period in 2021, according to Ipea. In 2002, the sector’s GDP did not register growth, but grew 2.5% in 2023. ​