Specialists reduced the outlook for inflation this year amid a scenario of less pressure on administered prices, but both measures were raised for 2023, according to the Focus survey that the Central Bank released this Monday (11).
The survey, which was released again after the end of the strike by BC servers, shows that the projection for the IPCA high in 2022 fell to 7.67%, from 7.96% in the previous week. For 2023, however, it went from 5.01% to 5.09%.
Both readings remain well above the target ceiling for both years — the official target for inflation in 2022 is 3.5% and for 2023 it is 3.25%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 points. percentage plus or minus.
The adjustments come amid similar revisions to the outlook for regulated price inflation. For this year the calculation went from 3.51% to 2.20%, but for 2023 it increased from 5.99% to 6.15%.
The reduction in the projection for administered prices in 2022 comes after the approval of the law that establishes a ceiling for ICMS rates on the fuel, gas, energy, communications and public transport sectors, which tends to help contain the rise in prices. this year. But it has no lasting effects and analysts estimate that these prices will put pressure on general inflation again next year.
For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate in 2022 was raised by 0.08 percentage point, to 1.59%. For next year, the account remained at 0.50%
The weekly survey of a hundred economists also showed that the basic interest rate will end 2022 at 13.75% and 2023 at 10.50%, unchanged.
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