Christmas dinner is up to 27% more expensive; see inflation by product

In a scenario marked by high inflation, Christmas dinner should become more expensive for Brazilian families in 2021. Chicken and beef, eggs, bread, cod and wine are part of the list of products related to the festive date that registered an increase in prices within 12 months.

The advance of the items in the accumulated goes up to the range of 27%, points out a survey by economist Matheus Peçanha, from FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation).

The researcher selected ten products, whose price variation appears in the IPC-10 (Consumer Price Index-10). The indicator is calculated by FGV Ibre in seven capitals — Belo Horizonte, Brasília, Porto Alegre, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Salvador.

In the 12-month period, between December 2020 and November 2021, whole chicken is the item in the Christmas dinner that rose the most. The item soared 27.34%, followed by an increase in eggs (20.05%).

According to Peçanha, the strong advance in prices reflects a combination of ingredients, ranging from the heated demand in the international market for animal protein to cost pressure for producers in the field.

Feed, for example, is part of the inputs used in raising chickens and in the production of eggs. During the pandemic, the item was pressured by the appreciation of soy and corn on the international market.

These commodities rose on the back of the higher dollar and heated demand. There was also an impact from the drought and the record of frosts in the country, which caused losses in part of the crops.

“Consumer prices reflect a sum of factors. There were climate problems, the impact of the exchange rate, in addition to the higher logistical costs with the rise of diesel oil, for example,” says Peçanha.

After chicken and eggs, the biggest increase among the products associated with the Christmas dinner was registered by beef: 18.68%.

The heated demand in the international market also encouraged exports during the pandemic, raising prices within the country.

This pressure, however, was lessened after shipments to China were suspended in September, when there was a record of suspicion of two atypical cases of mad cow in Brazil.

In 12 months, Christmas dinner inflation is also impacted by the rise in the prices of olive oil (13.69%), other types of bread (11.12%), cod (7.98%), wine (7.77 %), pork loin (6.48%) and pork ham (3.44%), according to IPC-10 data.

Faced with rising inflation, the replacement of items on the festive date has become a more complicated task this year, says Peçanha.

The only one of the ten products on the list drawn up by the researcher that registered a drop in 12 months was rice (-4.45%).

According to the economist, the reduction occurred after shooting last year and, in part, is related to better harvest conditions in the south of the country.

The president of Asserj (Association of Supermarkets of the State of Rio de Janeiro), Fábio Queiróz, also assesses that the scenario for Christmas is one of pressured prices.

“We need to understand that part of the products, such as cod and wines, are imported. There is the impact of the rise in the dollar. It will be a Christmas of pressured prices”, says the director.

“For next year, we expect a stabilization of prices or even a drop. Inflation is not good for anyone. We live by selling in volume, not selling expensive. Every penny makes a difference”, he adds.