Dollar drops on expectations of lower US tightening and China stimulus

The dollar opened this Monday (18) lower against the real, following an improvement in the appetite for international risk in the face of moderation in bets on the magnitude of the monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve, central bank of the United States, and the prospect of more economic stimulus. in China.

At 9:04 am (GMT), the spot dollar retreated 0.60%, to R$ 5.3737 on sale.

On B3, at 9:04 am (GMT), the dollar futures contract with the first maturity fell 0.66%, to R$ 5.3955.

On Friday (15), there was a cooling of the American currency abroad and gains in the stock markets, although economic concerns remained on the radar after weak data from China and the prospect of a possible more aggressive interest rate hike in the United States.

In the domestic stock market, the Ibovespa index rose 0.44% on the day, to 96,551 points. The weekly balance had a strong drop of 3.72%.

Abroad, the rise of the New York Stock Exchange pointed to a reduction in pessimism at the end of a week of turmoil. The benchmark indicator for stocks traded on Wall Street, the S&P 500, rose 1.92%. In the week, there was a drop of 0.93%.

Last week, record inflation in the United States raised expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates even more aggressively than expected.

The credit crunch is intended to stop the rise in prices in the world’s main economy, but the side effect could be a global recession. It is a perception that causes widespread devaluation of company shares and depreciation of raw materials.

On Thursday (14), oil reached its lowest value since the outbreak of the Ukrainian War. The barrel of Brent came to be below US$ 95 (R$ 518). There was a recovery in the late afternoon, and the commodity closed close to stability (fall of 0.47%), quoted at US$ 99.10 (R$ 543).

The context of greater US monetary tightening and fear of a global recession is adverse for emerging markets, which are heavily dependent on commodities, such as Brazil.