The Auxílio Brasil social program, whose proposal was created by the government and modified by the Chamber of Deputies, raises to 20 million the number of families entitled to the resources and should put even more pressure on the 2022 Budget.
The forecast is part of preliminary estimates by the House Budget Consultancy, passed on to the project’s rapporteur, Deputy Marcelo Aro (PP-MG).
The increase calls into question President Jair Bolsonaro’s (non-party) intention to grant a minimum amount of R$ 400 to each home, since the spending ceiling in 2022 was already practically at the limit even considering the expansion via PEC (proposal by amendment to the Constitution) of the Precatories.
The numbers requested by the president, combined with the new public, would raise the demand for resources for Auxílio Brasil in 2022 by around R$ 10 billion beyond the forecast — to R$ 96 billion in total.
The increase in the public occurred because the Chamber raised the poverty line, used to define who is entitled to the resources.
In the model proposed by the government, every family with a monthly per capita income of up to R$ 200 would be entitled to it. Deputies raised the ceiling to R$ 210.
According to the figures cited by the rapporteur, the difference puts 3 million more families into the program than the approximately 17 million previously estimated by Minister João Roma (Citizenship), surpassing the costs considered so far if you really want to follow. Bolsonaro’s plan to pay a minimum of R$400 per family.
TO sheet Aro highlighted that his text does not foresee the value of R$ 400 projected by the government and avoids commenting on Bolsonaro’s proposal to reach that amount, saying that this engineering will be the responsibility of the government.
Until now, the government and allies worked with an amount of R$ 85.8 billion for Auxílio Brasil.
“In my provisional measure, we are not talking about R$ 400. If the government wants to arrive [a esse montante], he has to answer how he’s going to do it,” said Aro.
Technicians from the Rome team are still finalizing calculations on the effect of the changes approved by the Chamber, which expanded the criteria for accessing the program and also included a device so that there is no waiting list at Auxílio Brasil.
With the proposal to prevent the queue, every family that has the criteria analyzed by the government and is approved for the program will have to start receiving the income transfer.
Today, the program’s waiting list works as a mechanism to control spending on social assistance. The system includes the family on the income transfer list when funds are available for payments until the end of the year.
By law, currently, the government is not required to serve all families that are within the poverty and extreme poverty range.
The queue, which currently has around 1.2 million registrations, is formed because the budget for Bolsa Família (the predecessor of Auxílio Brasil) has been smaller than necessary to serve everyone who had their registration analyzed by the government.
The Auxílio Brasil budget for 2022 considers that 17 million families will be assisted. Coverage today is 14.7 million.
The Ministry of Economy was still waiting this Monday (29) for official data on the number of beneficiaries to analyze the impact of the new text and how to accommodate the numbers.
The calculation depends on the accounts of the Ministry of Citizenship, which, when contacted, did not yet have an official number.
Government members heard by sheet they recognize that it will be a difficult task to meet the R$400 requested by Bolsonaro and claim that there may be an adjustment both in the program’s entry rule and in the amount to be paid to beneficiaries.
The version approved by the Chamber also relaxes the rules for calculating this per capita income. For example, occasional or seasonal rents are not included in the calculation.
The MP will still be voted on in the Senate. As it is a provisional measure, the proposal has already entered into force, but it needs the approval of Congress by December 7th in order not to lose its validity.
In addition to approving the MP that creates Auxílio Brasil within the deadline, the government needs the approval of Congress to increase the spending margin in the Budget and, therefore, fulfill Bolsonaro’s promise to raise the average benefit of the program from the current level of R$220 per month for an amount that is at least R$400.
The expansion of the spending margin will be given by the PEC dos Precatórios, which is under analysis by the Senate. With this PEC, it will be possible to expand the program’s budget to more than R$85 billion next year, when Bolsonaro intends to run for reelection.
Due to the delay in voting the PEC, the government must complete a payroll this week with the list of current beneficiaries of the program (14.7 million families).
The payroll will then be updated in mid-December to include new beneficiaries and raise the amount to be transferred to families in the month, reaching the minimum level of R$400, as Planalto wants.
The PEC dos Precatórios releases an increase of R$ 106.1 billion in federal government spending in 2022, according to the Ministry of Economy.
Even so, the resources are not enough to pay for Bolsonaro’s promises because almost half of the resources will be consumed by the readjustment of obligatory expenses for inflation.
According to the government’s accounts, only BRL 1.1 billion would be left considering Brazil Aid increased by BRL 51.1 billion in 2022 (as the budget proposal for next year already contains BRL 34.7 billion for the program, the forecast so far was a total cost of R$85.8 billion for the program).
The MP’s vote that creates the Bolsa Família replacement was postponed in the Chamber twice last week, as the government had to articulate changes in the report.
In a preliminary version, Aro wanted to provide for an automatic correction of the amount of income transferred monthly to the poorest population in the country. The readjustment would be by the INPC (inflation index focusing on the lower classes).
Due to pressure from the economic team, the majority of the Chamber did not support this item.
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