Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: The extreme right can take the government of Italy

Since World War II, Western Europe has never elected a far-right government. This is what could happen in the September election in Italy.

The most popular party is, for now, the Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, with 23% of preferences, according to the poll aggregator of the website Politico. It is an organization of frankly fascist origins, which has been trying to clean up its bar, in the manner of Marine Le Pen in France.

The center-left Democratic Party is almost tied with the Italian Brothers. But then comes the fascist League, by Matteo Salvini, with 15%, the demagogic clowns of Cinco Estrelas, with 12%, and the right-wing bunga bunga of Força Italia, with 8%, by Silvio Berlusconi, 85, still on active duty, a leader in the overthrow of Mario Draghi’s government of national unity.

Of the larger parties, only the Brothers of Italy was not in the coalition. Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi therefore account for 46% of the preferences. Yes, poll aggregators have problems, and partisan preferences may not say everything about the outcome of a parliamentary election. But studies based on opinion polls indicate the favoritism of the trio, who are now allies.

The Brothers of Italy emerged from the bowels of the Italian Social Movement (MSI), the post-war party that collected the surviving rubbish of Mussolini’s gang. Giorgia Meloni, 45, Roman, from poor backgrounds, now a “celebrity”, began her career as an MSI youth leader.

Nowadays, he tries to fit in with the right-wing international that brings together Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán, an autocrat from Hungary. She is friends with Vox, the Spanish far-right, although her party is not part of Le Pen’s caucus in the European Parliament.

It’s against immigrants, same-sex marriage, adoption of children by LGBTs, “gender ideology”, in favor of smaller government, the whole package. It was once Eurosceptic, but has moderated criticism. One recent reason is that Italy, along with Spain, is the country that can receive the biggest share of the €807 billion of the European post-Covid reconstruction fund, provided it meets certain requirements, “reforms”, that had been being played by Draghi.

Draghi was president of the European Central Bank, a capable and decent technocrat, but a technocrat. He came to office without going through an election, although he was the most popular politician in the country until he fell, in part because of a lack of wit.

In the Italian hustle, it is difficult to say which electoral and governing coalitions will form. Moreover, given the country’s economic situation, perhaps the far right will behave.

Political uncertainty can make financing the huge government debt, 151% of GDP, less expensive than Greece’s (193%). Italy’s per capita income (GDP) has grown by just 1.2% since 2000, the worst performance in the eurozone.

The European Central Bank wants to avoid a crisis similar to that of 2012, now that it begins to raise interest rates in order to control inflation. He indicated that he has a plan to avoid an explosion in interest charges from governments like Italy’s (which, after all, is a subsidy). With vinegar up its nose, a government can take advantage of this situation, as long as it doesn’t do too much mischief (see, however, how Orbán undermines the European Union).

It may be that, in the campaign, the far right pays part of the price for having overthrown a prime minister who gave the country some stability. Stability, but not a path. More and more, unpopular centrist technocracies win elections only because the alternative is the authoritarian horde. The hole of this crisis is much lower, in the US, Europe and Brazil as well.