Is it worth buying Petrobras shares to receive dividends?

​After Petrobras announced the distribution of record dividends of R$ 87.8 billion, market analysts have recommended investors to take advantage of the positive outlook for the business and buy the oil company’s shares.

The amount announced by the state-owned company corresponds to approximately R$ 6.73 per share, with the cut-off date set on August 11. That is, to be entitled to receive dividends, investors must have Petrobras shares traded on B3 in their portfolio on this date.

Those who purchase the shares on or after August 12 will no longer be eligible to receive payment for the second quarter results.

Payment will be made in two installments of R$ 3.36 each, on August 31 and September 20. The largest shareholder of the company, the Union will be entitled to around R$ 25 billion.

Making the investment with a focus only on the short term, thinking only of receiving the dividends, however, may not be worth it.

For Bruce Barbosa, a partner at investment analysis firm Nord Research, buying shares just with the idea of ​​pocketing dividends makes no sense.

This is because, on the day after the cut-off date established by Petrobras, explains the expert, the value of the shares will be automatically discounted by the corresponding value of the dividend distributed per share.

Therefore, the investor who buys the shares until August 11 will pocket the dividends, but the next day, the shares will start trading with the discount corresponding to the remuneration per share announced by Petrobras, says Barbosa.

“The financial value held by the investor does not change, what happens is just a distribution on top of the amount he has invested in the stock.”

The Nord partner states that there is a possibility that the shares will appreciate in the trading sessions following the cut-off date, restoring the discounted value of the distributed dividend, but that there is no way to be sure if this movement will materialize.

“Shares are traded in cheap multiples compared to peers, but due to the risk of political interference intrinsic to the asset”, says Barbosa, who says he prefers other securities in the sector, such as PetroRio and PetroReconcavo, which also benefit from the positive scenario. for oil exporters, without incurring political risk.

“The strategy of buying an asset to pocket dividends, thinking only in the short term, is not interesting,” endorses Enrico Cozzolino, head of analysis and partner at Levante Investimentos. “The dividend is interesting when the investor invests thinking about the long term, benefiting from the distribution and appreciation of the papers in longer windows.”

Cozzolino adds that, in addition to the discount suffered by the shares, the fact that the company announces such a high dividend indicates that the state-owned company is giving preference to remunerating investors rather than keeping part of this value in cash to invest in new expansion projects for the business.

A stock analyst at Toro Investimentos, Josias de Matos also says that the distribution of dividends is not only the result of the company’s good financial momentum, but also the result of political pressure from the federal government. “No wonder the announced dividends were so aggressive and above expectations, and what we believe would be distributed if there had not been this external pressure”, says the Toro analyst.

Favorable prospects for Petrobras’ next results

In any case, despite the discount referring to the dividend paid, and the political pressures, analysts also assess that the outlook for the company in light of the economic situation in the oil and gas sector remains positive and should keep the oil company’s shares on the recent upward trajectory. —in the accumulated of 2022, until August 1st, the papers rise about 18.4%, against the 2.5% drop of the Ibovespa in the period, according to Bloomberg data.

“The risk of political interference is very strong, which is why Petrobras is traded at cheaper multiples compared to international peers. However, this is something that is already in the price and, even so, I consider Petrobras a cheap action. on the Stock Exchange”, says the Levante partner.

According to Ilan Arbetman, an analyst at Ativa Investimentos, investing in Petrobras shares represents a good opportunity at the moment, considering the healthy operating balance and the favorable situation the company is experiencing, with oil prices in the international market still at very high levels.

“We saw in the second quarter results that Petrobras again had a very strong cash generation, and the announced dividend values ​​are in line with the company’s financial capacity”, says Arbetman.

Senso Investimentos analyst João Frota Salles says he also sees the current moment of Petrobras, benefited by the price of oil and the gains in operational efficiency promoted in recent years, as a good opportunity to be captured by investors.

“The medium and long-term macroeconomic assumptions continue to be very favorable to Petrobras”, says the specialist, adding that, even if the price of oil in the global market undergoes an adjustment and drops to around US$ 65, even so, the The oil company will continue to generate robust cash flow, as the cost of extracting oil in the pre-salt area is currently around US$ 20 per barrel.

Doubts about running the company from 2023 hover in the market

The point is that the prospects for the company from 2023 are still a big unknown in the minds of investors, says Salles. He recalls that, in the event of re-election of the Bolsonaro government, a privatization of Petrobras is a possibility on the radar, which could bring a new impetus to the roles.

On the other hand, if former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) confirms the favoritism indicated in the voting intentions polls, the direction tends to be the opposite, with the company possibly resuming its investment strategy in areas that are not a priority for the your business, says the Senso analyst.

“An escalation in political interference in Petrobras could have a negative impact on the perception and expectations of investors in relation to the company, which, ultimately, would impact its results and its financial health as a whole, which would significantly affect the company’s ability to remunerate shareholders”, says Matos, from Toro.

Even with the uncertainties that hang over Petrobras’ conduct next year, the oil company’s shares are still present in the recommended portfolios of banks and brokerages for the month of August.

“We see the state-owned company increasingly efficient, with recurring margins showing improvements, and indebtedness progressively shrinking”, point out analysts at Guide Investimentos, who kept the oil company’s shares in the portfolio suggested for August.

Petrobras’ dividend payout surpasses global industry giants

The distribution approved by the state oil company exceeds the proceeds paid by the main companies in the sector on a global scale.

The five largest oil producers in the West — Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and BP — have posted record distributions to their shareholders in recent days, between $4 billion and $7.6 billion, but they don’t come close to that figure. of approximately US$ 17 billion from Petrobras.

Petrobras’ dividends, however, are still lower than those of Saudi state-owned Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the global market, which has distributed US$ 18.7 billion to its shareholders per quarter. The next amount of your dividends will be published on August 14th.

with Reuters