Door open for new Selic high, MP that changes food stamp rules and what matters in the market

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Open door to more interest

As expected by the market, the Central Bank’s Copom raised the Selic rate once again by 0.5 percentage point this Wednesday (4th), to 13.75% per year.

Analysts were more anxious for the messages of the communiqué: the Copom left the door open for a new high in September, saying that it will evaluate a smaller advance (0.25 point).

What explains: in view of the greater monetary tightening of the inflation targeting regime (since 1999), the market is divided between the need for the BC to stop raising interest rates here or to increase it a little more.

• Local and external uncertainties led the Copom to “assess” a decision for the next meeting, and not “anticipate”, as it had been doing in previous communiqués.

• Since the Selic adjustment arrives late in economic activity, the BC abandoned this year’s target some time ago. The target is now mainly for 2023 inflation and a little for 2024.

• Market projections in the Focus survey put pressure on authority. They indicate IPCA of 5.33% for 2023 (the target is 3.25%) and 3.3% for 2024 (the target of 3%).

What changes in investments: with more interest and less inflation projected for this year, fixed income becomes even more attractive, according to projections by financial search engine Yubb.

• Incentive debentures (7.85%), LCI (6.19%) and LCA (5.81%), without incidence of IR (Income Tax), lead the real income (discounted for inflation) in 12 months.

• The CDBs of large banks started to return 0.97% above the expected inflation. The only application of the survey with a negative real return is savings (-0.91%). See how the income of other assets looks like.

• Find out here how much BRL 1,000 earn in savings, CDB and Treasury with the new Selic.

Why is diesel still expensive?

With two consecutive reductions announced by Petrobras and a drop in ICMS rates, gasoline prices are on a downward trend. But the same does not happen with diesel, fuel used to transport various items consumed by Brazilians.

What explains:

– High demand, low supply: diesel is the main substitute for natural gas in Europe, whose supply by Russia was limited after the invasion of Ukraine.

• Europeans have been increasing their diesel stock to face the northern hemisphere winter, as the fuel is also used to heat homes.

• Without access to Russian refineries, Europe buys more from the US, which is the main supplier of diesel imported by Brazil – the country depends on around 30% of fuel coming from abroad.

– ICMS: state tax rates for diesel were already lower than those applied on gasoline, so the ceiling of about 17% enacted in June and enforced by states had little effect.

In numbers: since the end of June, when the ICMS limit started to be applied by the states, the price of gasoline has dropped 22.3% –or R$ 1.65 per litre. The diesel one only retreated two% –or BRL 0.15 per litre.

• On Wednesday, gasoline prices in Brazil were 7% below import parity, while the difference for diesel was 10%. The data are from Abicom, an association of importers.

Can the situation change in the short term? Industry analysts and Petrobras itself do not expect a drop in diesel prices until the end of the year.

• In addition to the arrival of winter in Europe, the hurricane season in the US – which limits production at refineries – and the outflow of the crop (especially soybeans) in Brazil are risk factors for the balance between supply and demand in the coming months.

Congress approves voucher withdrawal after 60 days

Congress approved this Wednesday the provisional measure that changes the rules on the payment of food stamps and regulates the home office.

The main change allows the worker to withdraw in cash the balance of the voucher that has not been used within 60 days. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), rapporteur for the project, criticized the “legal insecurity” of the device and indicated that it will be vetoed by President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

What else changes in the food stamp:

• Portability: the worker will be able to choose the card through which he will receive benefits from May 1, 2023.

• Open payment: in this model, the card brands are responsible for accrediting the restaurants. Today, those who do this are the card operators.

Home office regulations:

• The text allows an individual agreement to deal with the hours and means of communication between employee and employer, provided that legal principles are ensured.

• The presence of the worker in the work environment for specific tasks, even if in a habitual way, does not detract from remote work.

• Telework can be contracted by journey, production or task and can also be applied to apprentices and interns.

the senate approved another provisional measure this Wednesday that deals with telework.

• It authorizes governments to relax labor rules to contain the social and economic consequences of a state of public calamity – which can also be decreed by states and municipalities. The text goes to promulgation

Empiricus rebuts TC complaint

A technical opinion commissioned by Empiricus says there are “substantial elements to indicate the falsity” of images of message exchanges in which company directors allegedly discuss the publication of an anonymous video against its competitor TC.

Understand the case: the video that began to circulate in June shows a woman with clown makeup saying that the TC manipulates shares traded on the stock exchange and talks about other crimes committed in the company. According to the TC, the insinuations are lies.

• He also presented in a press conference alleged exchanges of messages by WhatsApp of the directors of Empiricus who, according to him, arrived anonymously at the TC.

What Empiricus says: the opinion commissioned by the company to a criminal lawyer and a criminal expert concludes that “there are substantial elements to indicate the falsity of the prints presented”.

• It also says that the material could have been produced “through an application easily found on the internet that allows the creation of ‘fake’ conversations, in conversation applications such as WhatsApp”.

What does the TC say: stated that he “has no reason to doubt the veracity of the documents he received” and that “it is inconceivable that the experts hired by Empiricus have not analyzed the cell phones used in the conversations”.

• “If the owners of Empiricus, Caio Mesquita and Felipe Miranda, want an effective clarification of the case, they should present their devices to the Federal Police so that they can be officially examined”, said the TC, in a note.