Opinion – Claudio Bernardes: The most resilient cities in the world

As the world’s urban population grows, the importance of cities becoming more resilient increases. This means increasing the ability to survive, adapt and grow, even in the midst of adverse conditions, chronic stresses or acute shocks that threaten the urban community, whether natural or man-made.

The company Savills – one of the oldest real estate consultancies in the world with 160 years of experience – has published annually, since 2016, a ranking of the most resilient cities in the world. The resilience index adopted considers four important factors to assess urban resilience: real estate investments; technology, education and innovation; economic strength; and ESG (Environment, Social, Governance).

In terms of real estate investments, a resilient city must have a liquid market, with an adequate mix of national and international investors, legal certainty and respect for property rights.

Collectively, the world’s cities scored very highly in this regard, with investment volumes of more than $1.3 trillion in 2021 – 59% higher than invested in 2020, and 22% higher than in 2019. Angeles and New York have alternated places since 2016, they remain at the top of the rankings in this regard.

When it comes to assessing economic strength and resilience, size matters. Population growth and higher GDP growth – both consolidated total and per capita – not only boost resilience and economic diversity, but also reduce risk. Tokyo stands out for its low risk and highly diversified economy.

On the other hand, New York’s outstanding position is based directly on wealth – it has the highest GDP per capita (twice that of Tokyo). China has four cities in the Top 12, reflecting its growing economic strength. Shenzhen remains in third place, while Shanghai and Hangzhou are in the top ten.

The world economy is increasingly driven by technology and education, and the most resilient cities are those that can adapt to new technologies and offer attractive environments for business, especially those focused on technology and information.

South Korea achieved a prominent position in the ranking due to its strong education and technology system. Seoul has been at the top of the rankings since 2016, while smaller cities like Daejeon and Gwangju move into the top ten. Other major cities such as London, New York, Beijing and Shanghai also stand out.

As in all other aspects of human life, in cities ESG issues have become a priority. Not only do industrialized nations target carbon neutrality, but so do smaller countries and large corporations.

However, ESG factors are largely driven by national governments. The index ranks cities according to the countries in which they are located, considering factors such as per capita carbon emissions, renewable energy consumption, food security, inequality, democracy and the rule of law. However, it also considers the carbon neutrality databases by cities. The best performers in this regard are concentrated in a small number of countries in Northern Europe and Canada.

Leading this ranking is Reykjavik, Iceland, followed by Oslo and Bergen, Norway. The total population of cities ranked in the top ten, taking the ESG factor into account, is less than seven million people, slightly more than a quarter of Shanghai’s population. These data show the magnitude of the challenge to be faced by large cities and emerging economies.

All things considered, the ten most resilient cities in the world in 2021, in order, are New York, London, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Tokyo, Seoul, Berlin, Boston, Atlanta and Dallas. Among the top 20 are Paris, Singapore and Shanghai.

The importance of urban resilience and everything that surrounds it are issues that are known today. But it is imperative to implement continuous dialogue on this issue between governments and civil society, so that the resilience of cities is built in a structured and lasting way, in all aspects.