Risk aversion. This is the reason for the deceleration of commodity prices in recent days. This Tuesday (16), with the exception of cotton, which followed oil, all the main agricultural commodities retreated.
According to Daniele Siqueira, from AgRural, there are no major changes. Until mid-July, the market worried about risks, pushing prices down.
Subsequently, prices rose again. Now, a new course correction is made, with more falls. Some actual data gave reason for this retreat, but it was already foreseen.
Among them, the slowdown in China’s economy, which came to be demonstrated by numbers, and not just by prospects, says the analyst.
In the case of the fall in soybeans, the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) slightly increased the crop forecast.
External demand remains stable, but China is waiting for a better definition of the US harvest to return to the market with a higher volume of purchases.
Usda’s production forecast gave the market a little relief, but the American supply and demand picture remains very tight.
The bran followed the soybean in grains and fell 3.6% this Tuesday. Demand, however, is strong, especially in the United States, which is at the peak of the off-season and doesn’t have much soybeans to grind.
One of the signs of strong demand for bran is the record exports of the product by Brazil. Argentina, traditional in this market, has internal difficulties in placing the product on the foreign market.
Corn, on the other hand, is experiencing an international scenario that is a little more relaxed than that of soybeans, but it still depends on the results of harvests in various regions of the world.
Internally, cereal prices depend on the behavior of the exchange rate. The dollar’s retreat pulls the cereal down, but a rise has the opposite effect.
According to Siqueira, the country still has 40 million tons of corn to trade. If the producer delays too much for commercialization, prices rise.
This Tuesday, the sack of corn rose again. The negotiations monitored by Cepea indicated an average value of R$ 82 per bag, 1% more than the previous day. Soybean, quoted at R$ 183, fell 1%.
The performance of oil, which this Tuesday came to record one of the lowest lows of the year, is important for agricultural markets. The oil has weight in the formation of costs in the economy.
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