10 years ago, the national automotive sector reached its peak in sales. The 420,000 units shipped in August 2012 are a record that seems impossible to beat.
On average, 17,600 light and heavy vehicles were sold per business day in that period, according to Fenabrave (association of distributors). In the current month, that number stands at 7,795 licenses per day.
The domestic market accumulated nine straight years of high in 2012. Among the 10 best-selling models, only the Fiat Strada pickup did not offer an option with a 1.0 engine. It was the absolute domain of popular automobiles.
Market leader at the time, the Volkswagen Gol registered 32,629 license plates in August 2012. The car returned to the top in July this year, but with a modest volume: 11,925 units were sold last month.
10 years ago, the model had just been renewed. The 1.0 four-door version of the compact VW cost R$27,990, according to the price list released by the automaker at the time. Since then, the Volkswagen has undergone mechanical changes, but the current design is practically the same. Today it is sold for R$ 75,830.
In that distant August, 10,594 Gol units were sold through direct sales, which represents 32.5% of the total. In this modality, businesses made by fleet owners predominate – such as rental companies, which dominate this modality. It is the purchase by CNPJ, and not by CPF.
Last month, 81.3% of hatch licensing went to legal entities. There are some explanations for this, starting with the different moments in the market.
10 years ago, Brazil lived the cycle of measures to stimulate the consumption of automobiles in retail. It was the back-and-forth of the IPI (Tax on Industrialized Products).
A period of reduction would end at the end of that August. However, on the 29th, the then Minister of Economy, Guido Mantega, announced that the rebate would be extended until the end of October.
When the new deadline was about to expire, President Dilma Rousseff announced that the measure would be valid until the end of 2012. But there was a new extension, and more.
Between larger and smaller reductions in the rate, the cycle only ended at the beginning of 2015. The lack of control of public accounts did not make room for tax benefits of that amount anymore.
The crisis was already installed in the country, and car sales fell month by month. There was an outline of a resumption between 2018 and 2019, but the automakers’ strategy was already focused on profitability, with higher value-added cars being prioritized.
What appeared to be a bullish cycle was interrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic. The market has changed, the cars have changed, the parts are missing. Today the automotive industry works at less than half of its installed manufacturing capacity.
Between January and August 2012, 2.5 million light and heavy vehicles were licensed. That is, about 500 thousand units more than the most optimistic forecasts for the entire year of 2022.
In the list of the 10 best-selling cars between January and July, only one has an initial price below R$ 70 thousand. It is the Fiat Mobi, which costs from R$ 64.7 thousand, according to the table released by the automaker.
The retail sector, which accounted for 78.6% of vehicle sales in August 2012, now represents 58% of licensing. Direct sales are advancing at a time of restructuring of rental companies’ fleets. It is in this niche that there is a remote chance that the market will once again register a month with more than 400 thousand units sold.
For this to happen, the long-term rental modality would have to become more interesting for the consumer, in the same way as in the American market. The cars, therefore, would not be sold to users, but to rental companies.
But a change of this magnitude in the market is something distant, which also depends on the emergence of more efficient and accessible cars for the general public, which has seen the values of new vehicles soar beyond their ability to buy.
It is unlikely, however, that the prices of future electric or hybrid models produced in Brazil will be as attractive as the popular ones of 2012. That August is getting farther and farther away.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
