Panel SA: Electoral scenario divides businessmen’s forecasts

The business community still does not outline a clear scenario of what may happen in the electoral dispute in the coming weeks.

Although the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro shows signs of consolidation in the polls, there are still expectations of reversals.

There is little consensus in the predictions about the electoral effects that Bolsonaro can gain from the granting of benefits, and a part of the advocates of the third way is beginning to lose enthusiasm.

The last round of the Datafolha poll carried out last week, from Tuesday (16) to Thursday (18), showed Lula ahead, with Bolsonaro advancing in voting intentions and without significant movement in the third way.

For banker Ricardo Lacerda, from BR Partners, the survey shows that the election is heading towards a fiercer dispute between Lula and Bolsonaro.

“The president’s challenge now is to reduce the difference to the single-digit level by the beginning of September. For that, it is not enough to recover part of his repentant voters. He will need to take votes away from Lula”, says Lacerda.

In the opinion of businessman Lawrence Pih, Lula is more likely to win in the first round. He sees no chance of voting back after the social benefits offered by Bolsonaro such as the R$600 Auxílio Brasil.

“The picture will hardly turn in their favor when voters remember the way the Bolsonaro government managed the pandemic, ruined public accounts, caused the devaluation of the currency, inflation, interest in the stratosphere, devastation of the Amazon, failed foreign policy, not to mention secret budget, an affront to institutions and the stimulus to discord”, says Pih.

Investor Lawrence Pih was one of the first businessmen to support the PT in the 1980s and also one of the first to publicly criticize the Dilma Rousseff government three decades later.

Antonio Carlos Pipponzi, chairman of the board of RaiaDrogasil, still sees room for the third way. “We are in a very polarized situation in which the percentage of votes by exclusion is very large. With candidate Simone Tebet’s significant TV time, there may be significant changes in the scenario”, he says.

Joana Cunha with Paulo Ricardo Martins and Diego Felix