Savings income calculation will change; understand

Faced with an inflation that shows no signs of truce, there is a consensus in the market that the basic interest rate, the Selic, will have to be raised again by at least 1.5 percentage points, to 9.25% per year, at the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting on December 7th and 8th.

And as certain as the new Selic increase, already signaled by the BC (Central Bank), are the changes that the measure will bring about in the way savings income is calculated.

This is because, since 2012, when the basic interest rate is below or equal to 8.5% per year, the profitability of savings is equivalent to 70% of the Selic, plus the TR (Referential Rate), zeroed about three years ago and no short-term change predictions.

At the time, when the interest rate touched the then-historical lows of 7.25%, the government sought to prevent a massive migration of resources from government bonds to savings.

With the Selic currently at 7.75% per year —and with new discussions underway to deal with a possible change in the way the application is calculated—, the equivalent yield of the passbook is around 5.42% per year.

However, when the Selic most likely exceeds this level at the end of the Copom meeting next Wednesday (8), the yield is again the same as the “old savings” -0.5% monthly, plus TR, which corresponds at 6.17% per year.

Despite the increase, the return is still well below current inflation — in 12 months, the IPCA-15 advances 10.73%, until November.

The last time the Selic was above 8.5% was in September 2017, when it was 9.25%.

“We are going to turn the year around with the interest rate probably at 9.25% again, which triggers the change in the profitability of savings”, says Sandra Blanco, chief strategist at Órama Investimentos.

She notes that even during the sharpest days of the pandemic, when the Selic slipped to an all-time low of 2% a year, many more conservative investors kept their money in savings. “Now, with the expected increase in interest rates, these people are even more comfortable in continuing with the application”, says the specialist.

It is worth remembering, however, that the high Selic does not only impact the profitability of savings, but also that of other post-fixed assets linked to the CDI, says Luciane Effting, executive superintendent of investments at Santander.

“And when we compare this profitability that savings will achieve with the profitability of a CDB at 100% of the CDI, savings may lose attractiveness”, says the specialist.

In the last Focus report, estimates pointed to a Selic rate of 11.25% in 2022.

President of Alocc Gestão Patrimonial, Sigrid Guimaraes cites Treasury Selic government bonds traded through the Tesouro Direto virtual platform, as well as CDBs from top-tier banks with FGC (Credit Guarantee Fund) coverage as very low-risk alternatives that will deliver returns higher than savings in the coming months.

“Treasury bonds are an alternative for investors to circumvent the low profitability of savings without giving up security”, says Sigrid.

Sandra, from Órama, draws attention to the fact that BC president Roberto Campos Neto has signaled in recent statements his intention to promote changes in the way savings income is calculated.

A source of funds for real estate financing, the idea being discussed internally by the monetary authority would be to seek a way to make the funds deposited in savings, for immediate redemption, more adherent to the long-term conditions established in the contracts of the civil construction sector.

“I think you can think about savings remuneration, as they’ve already said, with the IPCA, but it has to be a very careful change, because savings have a lot of people, and basically people who don’t understand much, with lower purchasing power,” said Octavio de Lazari, president of Bradesco, at lunch with the press on Friday (3).

“These alternatives should be discussed with economic agents, but you have to be very careful to do it. And when you do it, do it in stages, slowly, so as not to scare people,” added the executive.

At the end of October, the financial reserve deposited in the savings account totaled around R$ 1.027 trillion. When contacted, the BC replied that it would not comment.

After registering a record raising of BRL 166.31 billion in 2020, heavily influenced by the payment of emergency aid, savings accounts have accumulated withdrawals of BRL 30.77 billion in 2021, until October, according to BC data.

Financial planner and member of the board of directors of Planejar (Brazilian Association of Financial Planners), Gisele Colombo de Andrade believes that, depending on the level of inflation and the profile of each person, investing in savings accounts can make sense.

“A return of 0.5% per month becomes a competitive return, but this when we are in a period of low inflation”, says the specialist.

Forecasts in the Focus report pointed out that inflation measured by the IPCA should end 2021 at 10.15%. For next year, the expectation is for an important deceleration, with an inflation of 5.00%. The estimates, however, have been revised over the past few weeks and are already at the top of the BC’s tolerance band for the inflation target.

“If we have an inflation below 6% next year, I see savings as a good investment, which will generate a real gain. Especially in the case of that person who has no knowledge of the financial market and who may have a booklet in the booklet. alternative to start the formation of a reserve”, says Gisele.

The specialist says that, in general, the average level of knowledge of the Brazilian population about financial products is still quite low. Therefore, he says, a conservative investment, but with a guaranteed return, is more recommendable than betting on internet ads promising astronomical gains, but which are often scams.

“Many savers see savings as a safe haven, due to its characteristics or even a cultural theme. Taking into account a highly volatile scenario that may extend into the coming months, this may be another reason for the search for this security”, says Luciane, from Santander.

According to her, the portfolio diversification work foresees the allocation in different asset classes, including low-risk investments such as CDBs, DI funds or, eventually, and if the client so desires, savings.

“In other words, part of the resource can even be invested in savings, to have a resource available whenever you need it or to balance the risk of a diversified portfolio”, says Santander’s investment superintendent.