Four points to understand GDP surprise, news quiz of the week and what matters in the market

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Four points to understand the GDP surprise

Brazilian GDP grew 1.2% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the previous three months. The indicator is now 3% above the pre-pandemic level.

In numbers: the result came above market expectations, whose median was an advance of 0.9%.

• Compared to the second quarter of 2021, GDP grew by 3.2%. Here’s how it’s calculated.

• See here the result of the indicator in 32 other countries.

What explains: much of the growth is associated with the reopening of activities after the end of restrictions and the stimuli granted by the government in the period, such as the withdrawal of the FGTS and anticipation of the 13th of the INSS.

• These two factors drive the service sector and household consumption, the main components of GDP – the first in the order of supply, the second in the order of demand.

Four points to understand the performance of GDP in the 2nd quarter:

1 – Services: grown up 1.3% compared to the previous three months. It has a weight of 70% in terms of supply.

• The increase was driven by other service activities (on-site, such as restaurants and hotels), transport and information and communication.

2 – Family consumption: grown up 2.6% in the quarter. he answers for 60% from the perspective of demand – that is, spending on goods and services.

• Investments in the economy, measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation, rose 4.8% from April to June.

3 – New projections: The surprising rise in Q2 made economists raise their calculations for 2022 GDP.

• Until last week, the median was 2.10%, but now there are houses that expect a 3% advance this year, although the economy should feel interest rates more strongly in the final half of the year.

4 Analyzes:

• Drops in productivity and production due to climatic factors made agriculture rise 0.5% and put a brake on the country’s growth, analyzes Mauro Zafalon.

More on GDP:

4th cut in a row in gasoline

Petrobras announced a further reduction in the price of gasoline. The 7% drop that begins to take effect this Friday (2) is the fourth consecutive cut since July, in a reflection of the decline in oil prices.

In numbers: the reduction is BRL 0.25 per liter. Considering that the gasoline sold at the stations is mixed with ethanol, the savings at the pumps will be R$ 0.18 per liter, estimates the state-owned company.

What explains: the sequence of cuts happens to alleviate the lag of prices practiced in the country in relation to what is charged abroad.

• At the opening of the market this Thursday, the average price of fuel in Brazilian refineries was BRL 0.36 per liter more expensive than parity, in the calculations of Abicom (importers association).

• In diesel, the difference was much smaller, BRL 0.07.

Good news factory: After generating a lot of headaches for the government during the oil boom, the less negative external scenario helped to lighten Petrobras’ image in the Planalto.

take a break

• To watch “John McAfee: Genius, Controversial and Fugitive” – ​​on Netflix.

The documentary tells the final part of the life of John McAfee, creator of the antivirus of the same name, but who left the company in 1994.

• Accused of tax evasion and fraud by US authorities, he spent years on the run until he was arrested in October 2020 at Barcelona airport.

The production follows McAfee’s saga as a fugitive after being accused in Belize, where he lived, of being involved in the death of his neighbor, a former US military man.

• In the documentary, the antivirus founder said he fled authorities because he was being pursued by local government officials and drug cartels.

• The discussion about his death is for the end. The widow, Janice McAfee, doubts to this day the circumstances of the death and defends the hypothesis of burning the file. An autopsy showed that he killed himself in prison.

In addition to the economy:

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