Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: How Bolsonaro can touch Lula

Of the voters of Lula da Silva (PT), 17% say they can still choose another name, according to Datafolha. Among those who vote for Jair Bolsonaro (PL), 16%. Suppose Lula loses all these votes and receives none more; May Bolsonaro not lose any voters and win the vote of all those who claim to consider him as an alternative. At the end of the pencil, it would be a tie at around 37% (Lula now has 45%, Bolsonaro 32%).

Election is not a matter of counting at the tip of the pencil. But, on the one hand, it is easy to see from this content that Bolsonaro’s situation is not very easy. On the other hand, people may simply change their minds.

The rejection of Bolsonaro remains majority. Since May, it fluctuates between 51% and 55%. It should be noted in passing that Datafolha asks who voters “would never vote for in the first round”. With the exception, Bolsonaro would thus be defeated in a second round unless the rejection of his opponent was greater or equal. The rejection of Lula is at 39% (it was 33% in May).

It remains, therefore, for Bolsonarism to prey on Lula even more, calling him a “macumbeiro”, a “thief” and who knows what bullets they put in the needle in order to do additional damage. As for winning votes, the situation is difficult.

Among the voters of Ciro Gomes (PDT), 65% “would not vote at all” for Bolsonaro (at least in the first round); among those by Simone Tebet (MDB), 66%. For the rest, only 2% of voters still have no candidate.

As a second round is more likely, the campaign could still last for almost two months. This year, the bulk of the improvements in the economics of everyday life have already taken place. But it is almost certain that the number of people in employment will continue to increase until the end of October. The average wage recovers more quickly (deteriorating, in fact, but accelerating).

However, the great increase in poverty in 2021 may have left consequences, in emotions and in the body, in addition to the fact that many people still live in atrocious conditions.

General inflation dropped to less than 10% a year in August, but food inflation still runs at more than 17% a year. The R$600 of the April 2020 Emergency Aid is now worth only R$434 in terms of food purchasing power.

Judging by several Datafolha numbers, Auxílio Brasil gordo did not improve Bolsonaro’s situation in any way. So far, stand out. It may continue to have no effect, but the payment of Emergency Aid, as of April 2020, did not immediately raise Bolsonaro’s popularity, which continued to worsen until June of that year. Furthermore, the government may try to buy a few more votes.

Yes, the country is a horror, it has lost 12 years in socioeconomic terms, there is no “take off” and even less euphoria, but the left and opposition in general refuse to see the simplest and most obvious numbers of what was worsening and now it is obvious improvement . This will have some marginal effect on the election, in a campaign in which Lulismo offers no program and still suffers from the sociocultural aging of Lula’s popular harangue, who talks weekly nonsense.

In May, the difference between Lula and Bolsonaro in the first round was 21 points; now it’s 13.

Anyway, it is obvious that the election has many facets: Bolsonaro’s essential inhumanity, the religious question, feminism, “fatherland and family”, health, basic human decency, racism, democracy, class, generational issues. It’s not just the “hunger election”, even though a third of the country barely has enough to eat (so two thirds do, it should be noted). More certain and simple, Bolsonaro needs time to prey on Lula, who needs to aim for a goal in the first round.