Meat price doubles and will make barbecue more expensive at the World Cup

The Brazilian fan will have to dodge the higher prices if he wants to gather his friends for a barbecue on the days of the team’s matches in this year’s Qatar Cup, which will start on November 20th. Since the most recent edition of the tournament, in 2018, beef values ​​have skyrocketed in the country.

The survey of the basic food basket released by Procon-SP, in agreement with Dieese, gives a dimension of the increases for the consumer in the capital of São Paulo.

According to the survey, the average price per kilo of premium beef was R$22.63 in July 2018, when the final of the last World Cup took place. In the same month of 2022, the value practically doubled, calculated at R$ 43.89.

The increase in the period reached 93.9% – or R$ 21.26 more. The first cuts researched are coxão soft and duckling, according to Procon-SP.

Second-class meat had a similar trajectory. In the same period, the average price per kilo rose from R$17.74 to R$34.70, an increase of 95.6% – or R$16.96 more. In this case, the cuts researched are chuck and muscle.

Economists associate the surge in meats with a combination of ingredients such as heated demand in the international market, higher exchange rates and high production costs.

Consultant Fernando Henrique Iglesias, an analyst at consulting firm Safras & Mercado, recalls that China’s appetite for Brazilian meats had jumped even before the pandemic, due to the outbreak of African swine fever, which affected animal protein production in the Asian country.

Sales remained heated during the Covid-19 crisis, and the dollar above R$5 also stimulated shipments. The result was a smaller supply directed to the domestic market, which put pressure on prices, according to the economist.

“Consumers were saturated with the increases. That’s why meat prices stopped climbing in recent months,” says Iglesias.

Economist Matheus Peçanha, from FGV Ibre (Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas), also cites foreign demand and the exchange rate as factors that explain the increases.

Higher costs for cattle feed put additional pressure on meat, according to him. Peçanha highlights the rise of grains during the pandemic and the adverse effects of the weather, which damaged pastures in the country.

“In a period of four years, there is the inertial effect of inflation. And, from 2020 onwards, we had a strong inflationary process of food, meat specifically. external factors and exchange rate”, says Peçanha.

The basic food basket data released by Procon-SP shows that the high price has not been limited to beef since the 2018 World Cup.

The kilo of fresh sausage in São Paulo, for example, rose from R$ 12.54 in July of that year to R$ 21.30 in the same month of 2022. The increase was 69.9%.

In the same period, the average price per kilo of chilled whole chicken more than doubled, from R$5.76 to R$11.86.

Possible side dishes for the barbecue on game days have also become more expensive. The package of five kilos of rice advanced 62.1%, from R$ 12.10 to R$ 19.62. The kilo of French bread rose 41.2%, from R$11.28 to R$15.93.

Cassava flour, in turn, increased by 32%, from R$4.35 to R$5.74. The kilo of potato –used in salad or potato mayonnaise, depending on the name adopted in each region– increased by 121.4% (from R$2.57 to R$5.69).

In July 2018, the basic food basket released by Procon-SP cost R$ 695.93. This is an average value of 39 products, including food and cleaning and personal hygiene items. In July 2022, the basket was calculated at BRL 1,266.92. That is, the high was 82% in the period.

Tip is to search

This year’s Cup will be held in an atypical period, from November to December. Until then, the perspective is for better pasture conditions and a truce in inputs such as diesel oil, says Peçanha, from FGV Ibre. This, according to him, can generate relief for meat prices.

On the other hand, recalls the economist, uncertainties during the electoral period tend to impact the exchange rate in the country, which brings the risk of new pressures on products.

“It is necessary to research a lot. There are, for example, days with meat promotions in supermarkets. Another option is to seek wholesale discounts”, he says.

Iglesias, from Safras & Mercado, considers that beef prices may have new readjustments in the second half of the year in case of a stronger demand with Auxílio Brasil. The expansion of the benefit was announced by the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL) on the eve of the elections.

Beef and milk are the main products that the public of the program stopped buying and intends to consume again from the increase of transfers to R$ 600, indicated a recent survey by Asserj (Association of Supermarkets of the State of Rio de Janeiro).

“Retail chains usually do promotions in certain months or weeks. The recommendation is to be aware of this, you may have opportunities. Buy now to consume later, make stock, this is complicated, “says Iglesias.

As reported by the Sheet in July, in addition to meat, drinks also became more expensive in 2022. After the end of the 2018 World Cup until June this year, beer for consumption at home increased 17.37% in the country, according to IPCA data (Index National Consumer Prices) surveyed by economist Bruno Imaizumi, from LCA Consultores. Soda or mineral water (23%) and fruit juice (17.38%) also did not escape the pressure on prices in Brazil.

Commerce already dresses in green and yellow for the World Cup

The economic impacts of the World Cup usually go beyond supermarkets, reaching other retail sectors. Stores on Rua 25 de Março, a traditional point of popular commerce in São Paulo, have already started selling clothes, accessories and other products in the colors of the selection.

“It’s a market that is starting to heat up now”, says businessman Pierre Sfeir, 65, who works in the region. The shopkeeper bets on the sale of items such as flags, caps, horns and decoration items.

Part of the inputs rose almost 50% since the 2018 World Cup, calculates the businessman. With the pressure of costs, pass-throughs to final prices are inevitable, but in a smaller proportion, he says. It is the strategy to try to rebuild margins without losing sales.

“The price of fabrics and plastics has gone up a lot. The dollar has also impacted products that are imported.”