Toll rates could fall from 8% to 22% with risk reduction in concessions, calculates government

Toll rates can be 8% to 22% cheaper if road concessionaires do not fully assume the risks in situations of demand frustration, concluded a study prepared by the Jair Bolsonaro government (PL).

Today, almost all the risk falls on the concessionaires, which try to minimize potential losses by including this cost in the fees charged to drivers from the beginning of the contract. The model proposed by the government now suggests expanding the mechanisms for reviewing companies’ obligations in the event of demand below expectations.

The government considers that demand risk sharing could occur by postponing the execution of one or more works, for example, or by suppressing the reform schedule. If the end of the contract is near and there are no further works planned, the term of the concession agreement could be extended. As a last resort, further adjustments could be made to toll rates.

Today, the investment trigger, which is triggered when a certain traffic goal is reached, uses the initial moment of the contract as a basis.

The new proposal suggests a periodic assessment –with an interval yet to be defined– of the level of demand on the highways compared to the forecast, which would lead the regulatory agency to calculate its respective financial impact.

From this, it would be possible to adjust the schedule of works, either to postpone or suppress its execution in case of a lower-than-expected volume of vehicles or to advance or include works to meet demand above expectations.

The measure would be valid only for new concessions, not for contracts that are already in force. It is up to the Ministry of Infrastructure to adopt (or not) the model proposed by the study.

This could be a way of trying to contain the flow of devolution of highway concessions in the face of imbalances arising from the difference between revenues and expenses.

In 2017, Via 040 formalized the request to return the concession. The possibility of re-bidding was regulated in 2019, and the first order was from the concessionaire controlled by Invepar, which manages the 936 km of BR-040 between Brasília and Juiz de Fora (MG).

In November 2020, the first amendment of Via-040 was signed with ANTT (Agência Nacional de Transportes Terrestres), with the aim of guaranteeing the operation of essential services until the new concessionaire takes over the road.

The orders from the concessionaires have not yet come to fruition. They are waiting for the “friendly return”, in addition to Via-040 (BR-040), five more highways – MS Via (BR-163/MS), Concebra (BR-060/153/262), Autopista Fluminense (BR-101/RJ), the West Route (BR-163/MT), the Steel Highway (BR-393).

The road concessions sector felt the impact of the economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, with less movement of people and a drop in traffic, and the increase in the price of oil – raw material for asphalt – as a result of the War in Ukraine. A portion of the expenses incurred by the concessionaires is linked to the paving of the roads.