Datafolha: 53% say Lula is more likely to maintain Brazil Aid of R$600

Former President Lula (PT) is the candidate most likely to maintain the value of Auxílio Brasil at R$600 next year for most people who receive the benefit, according to a Datafolha survey.

For 53% of the beneficiaries interviewed, the current value is more likely to be maintained with the election of Lula. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was cited by 37% as the candidate most likely to continue paying R$600.

Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) appear with 1% each. The other candidates, added together, also reached 1%.

For 2% of the beneficiaries of Auxílio Brasil, none of the candidates for the Planalto will maintain payments of R$ 600 in 2023. Those who did not give an opinion amount to 5% of those interviewed.

The Bolsonaro government’s main bet in search of reelection, the Auxílio Brasil of R$ 600 began to be paid in August. The increase of R$ 200, on the value of R$ 400, is valid only until December of this year.

In the 2023 Budget, there is only a forecast for the correction for inflation of the value prior to the increase. The current government predicts that the benefit should be R$ 405 per family next year.

When considering all those interviewed by Datafolha, beneficiaries or not of Auxílio Brasil, there is a narrowing of the difference between Lula and Bolsonaro in terms of expectations about which of them is more inclined to continue paying the increase.

For 45%, Lula is the presidential candidate with the greatest chance of maintaining the payment of R$ 600 next year. Bolsonaro appears with 40% as the favorite to prolong the current value. Ciro Gomes is cited by 2% and Simone Tebet, by 1%. Other candidates, when aggregated, appear with 1%.

For 4% of the interviewees, none of the competitors will allow the program to be continued with the additional R$ 200 per family, while 7% had no opinion.

8 out of 10 voters say the amount of R$ 600 should be kept

Eight out of ten voters are in favor of maintaining the value of Auxilio Brasil at R$600 for the next year, according to the institute’s survey.

For 82% of respondents, regardless of whether or not they receive the benefit, the payment with the accessory of R$ 200 should be maintained by the candidate who wins the presidential election.

Only 8% of voters said that the benefit would need to go back to R$400. For 3%, it should end. Another 2% defended values ​​above R$ 600. Of the total, 4% had no opinion.

Considering only the responses of members of families benefiting from Auxílio Brasil, support for the maintenance of R$ 600 rises to 90%. For 5% of this group, however, the future president should pay the R$400 again in 2023.

The need to increase the value was mentioned by 1% of respondents. Also added to 1% were those who, despite being beneficiaries, defend the end of the program.

Voters of Lula and Bolsonaro are mostly in favor of continuing payments with the addition.

Among those who intend to vote for PT, 84% want the maintenance of the Auxílio Brasil of R$ 600. In the responses of Bolsonarista voters, 81% also supported the maintenance of the value.

The beginning of the payment of the Auxílio Brasil of R$ 600, however, still does not represent an advantage for Bolsonaro over Lula among the beneficiaries of the program.

Considering this share of voters, the candidate for reelection obtained 29% of voting intentions, in the current poll, against 28% in the two previous surveys, carried out from August 16 to 18 and between August 30 and September 1. The oscillation is within the margin of error.

Lula maintained the same 56% of voting intentions in relation to the two previous polls, also considering voters from families benefiting from the income distribution program.

Ciro Gomes appeared with 4%. Before, it had 7%. Simone Tebet was left with 3%, against 2% in the survey that preceded the current one.

26% of families receive the benefit

Datafolha asked which federal government social benefits respondents receive, and Auxílio Brasil appeared as the most common, when compared to Vale-Gás and aid for truck drivers and taxi drivers.

In comparison with last week’s survey, the rates of beneficiaries were stable, with 26% claiming to receive directly or live with someone who receives Auxílio Brasil. Before, it was 24%.

8% of voters declared receiving or living with a beneficiary of the Gas Valley, slightly below the 9% of the previous consultation.

In the case of Auxílio Caminhoneiro, 1% declared being a beneficiary or living with someone who receives the payment. This percentage has not changed from the last survey.

The Taxi Driver Assistance was mentioned, but it did not reach 1% of the mentions.

Women are the majority among people who receive Auxílio Brasil. They represent 29% of the public interviewed. Men are 23%.

Of those who do not receive Auxílio Brasil, 18% are on the federal government’s Single Registry. Before, this group represented 16%.

The Datafolha institute conducted 2,676 face-to-face interviews in 191 municipalities, with voters aged 16 or over from all regions of the country, between Thursday (8) and Friday (9).

The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, given a 95% confidence level. The research, commissioned by Sheet and TV Globo, was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the number BR-07422/2022.