Argentine crisis reaches even alfajor, next steps of the Musk vs Twitter fight and what matters in the market

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Argentine crisis reaches alfajor

Buying a brand new car, a computer or cell phone from top brands and even ordering alfajores. All this in Argentina became more difficult to do – not to mention the price – with the government’s restriction on imports.

Understand: the country has placed a limit on what companies can buy from abroad, to try to alleviate the local exchange rate. The objective is to avoid a greater demand for the dollar.

• Imports to Argentina are made at the official exchange rate (145 pesos), in which companies have import quotas based on purchases made in previous years.
• With this mechanism and the increase in international product prices, importers have to reduce their purchase volumes.
• Another problem is that the most adopted quotation by Argentines is the parallel, the “blue” (295 pesos), which ends up making everything more expensive.

And so that not only luxury imported items such as salmon, whiskey and expensive computers are in short supply on the market. An alfajor producer had to delay production because he didn’t have the wrapping papers and material to ship them to other locations.

• Even the stock of coffee in Argentine confectioneries is at risk, since it is a commodity (priced in dollars) with high prices in the foreign market.

Argentina in crisis: with a currency without the population’s confidence and a debt that does not stop growing, Argentine inflation is projected at 90% for this year.

• It is the biggest challenge for Sergio Massa, the “superminister” of the economy, who, when he took office last month, suspended the issuance of paper money.
• Last week, he secured another US$900 million in credit from the World Bank and was also praised by Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, the organization to which the country owes US$44 billion.

Twitter approves sale to Musk, but…

As expected, Twitter shareholders approved this Tuesday (13) the purchase of the social network by billionaire Elon Musk for $44 billion (R$227.8 billion), or US$54.20 per share.

After the news, the company’s shares closed with a slight increase of 0.80%, US$ 41.74, against a very bad day in the market. The main obstacle to the deal will be resolved in court, in a trial scheduled for next month.

Understand: About two months ago, the businessman abandoned the agreement on the grounds that Twitter did not fulfill its part of the deal by providing “false and misleading” information.

• The biggest criticism is about the percentage of fake accounts on the network. It claims to be much higher than the 5% reported by the platform.
• Twitter called the attempt to back out of the deal “invalid and unfair” and says the businessman backtracked because the tide of the market beneficial to tech companies turned.

And now? Law firms on both sides prepare for a noisy trial.

• There is a $1 billion clause that Musk would have to pay if he couldn’t get the financing for the purchase, an alternative that the billionaire’s team is considering resorting to, blaming the banks.
• Other possible solutions are an agreement for the Tesla owner to settle the purchase for an amount below the initial offer or an agreement to pay a fine to bury the matter for good.
• At worst for Musk, he may be forced to honor his commitment and buy Twitter at a price that has become exorbitant.

About that…Peiter Zatko, former head of security at Twitter, testified on Tuesday to the US Senate and reiterated his accusations that the platform does not prioritize the security of user data.

• Now considered an important member of Musk’s defense, he was fired in January from Twitter and said in a document sent to authorities that the network lies about the number of fake accounts.
• The social network says that Zatko was fired for ineffective leadership and poor performance and that his allegations seemed destined to harm her.

Stocks plummet with US inflation

The American inflation in August surprised the market and knocked down stock markets around the world. In the US, S&P 500 (-4.33%), Nasdaq (-5.16%) and Dow Jones (-3.94%) had their worst day since June 2020.

In numbers: CPI (consumer prices) rose 0.1% in August, against an estimate of 0.1% deflation (drop in prices) by market analysts. In the 12-month period, the index reached 8.3%deceleration compared to 8.5% in July.

• The core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy and is the indicator most followed by the Fed (US central bank), also surprised.
• he went up 0.6% in the month, with emphasis on the rise in prices related to housing, which indicates an inflationary resistance.

Why Inflation Destroyed Stock Markets: The data reinforced the signal to markets that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates at a rapid pace. For the next meeting, next week, the expectation is for a new high of 0.75 pointbut there are people predicting an advance of 1 point.

• Higher interest rates increase the value of US bonds, considered a safe haven for investments, and diminish the advantage of riskier stocks. Tech companies, which need credit to grow, are penalized more.
• Shares in Meta, which owns Facebook, plummeted 9.37%. Netflix lost 7.78%. Apple, the largest American company, has fallen 5.87%.

More numbers: the dollar appreciated globally, and in Brazil it jumped 1.80%quoted at BRL 5,189. Here, the Ibovespa felt the thud and retreated 2.30%at 110,793 points.

Ecommerce slows down

After the boom generated by the pandemic, e-commerce continues to see a rise in revenue in Brazil, but at an increasingly slower pace.

In numbers: online sales in the country reached BRL 118.6 billion in the first half, high 6% compared to the same period last year, in nominal values. By 2021, growth had been 47% in that comparison.

The data are from the consultancy NielsenIQ|Ebit, in partnership with the payment broker Bexs Pay and do not consider purchases at addresses considered to be foreign (cross border): Shopee, Alibaba, Amazon USA, among others.

• In all, 49.8 million Brazilians made online purchases in the first half of the year, an increase of 18% in the annual comparison. The average ticket, however, dropped 8% to R$412.
• The explanation for this may be the growth of food and beverage orders in e-commerce, which accounted for 12% of online orders, while electronics fell (-6%).

Another surveyby Dunnhumby, showed that Brazilians have been buying more food and household products on digital channels, but the bulk of spending in the month with these products has been done in person, in supermarkets.

Shopee leads among gringos: when considering only cross border sites, NielsenIQ|Ebit pointed out that 54% of Brazilians made purchases at these addresses in the first half of the year, down from 68% in the same period in 2021.

• In this clipping, the most searched site is Shopee, with 42% of the interviewees’ indications. Following are Aliexpress (34%), Amazon USA (31%), Shein (16%) and Wish (7%).