Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Even owners of big money want to believe in Lula 3

On Monday (19), Whatsapp groups owned by the money’s owners were filled with messages about “signs of moderation” by Lula da Silva (PT). Some of these people even gave lively interviews and lectures or attenuated pessimism about what the economy could be under a Lula 3. All because Henrique Meirelles declared his vote for the PT.

On Tuesday, the group of “but”, the contrarian and the only sensible ones showed up to say that such animation was silly, for various reasons. It was really election campaign foam. However, I could discern some signs in the midst of this humming noise.

First, that in the short term it does not seem so difficult to encourage the people of money, as the mere presence of Meirelles at a Lula rally generated conversation. Second, it seems that many people just expect some security, a small and better guarantee, to buy financial assets that are now cheap, such as government bonds and even stocks, and to resume operations to open or increase the capital of companies, which went to the vinegar in this 2022.

In other words: with a little cleverness, you can start the next government with some favorable wind, very necessary, because things are ugly, despite the calm, much worse than in 2002-2003.

That said, and back to the kids, Meirelles is not being considered for anything because no one around Lula knows what he intends to do with the economy, if elected. This is what PT members, others close to Lula and campaign people have been repeating since the beginning of the year.

A good-natured old PT, one of the party’s coolheads and very close to Lula, says, laughing: “Look, if anyone knows about the finance minister and stuff, I’ll be hurt, because I don’t know anything and Lula won’t even let us talk about this close to him”.

Many PT members were, however, furious with the mere gossip about Meirelles. But other coolheads in the party said that even to “be orthodox”, it is not necessary to put a “banker” in charge of the economy, which would be “offending” voters, party and allies. It would be possible to send the same “message” with a PT member or similar in the ministry, with “technicians” imported from “orthodoxy”, to use the terms of conversation of more resigned PT members, so to speak.

There are speculations and “positions”. Meirelles has been dancing the step of approaching Lulismo for months. Now he openly offers his services. Since July, there has been speculation about the chairman of Bradesco’s board of directors, Luiz Carlos Trabuco.

Until the middle of the year, the loudest buzz was about a former PT governor or traveling companion, a “skilled politician”, taking over the farm, as more or less big PTs repeatedly leak. That is, “someone with the ability to negotiate with Congress.”

It may be, but all this is small talk. To help those who own the money to earn some tutu at the turn of the government and interest rates or, seriously, create at least favorable expectations, it is necessary to define the obvious.

If elected, Lula needs to say whether he will accept a relatively autonomous economic command (as in 2003-2006), a serious debt containment project (some “ceiling” on spending), whether he will make a good parliamentary agreement for two or three major reforms right away (tax, administrative and guarantees for private investment) and it will appoint and support “technicians” capable of handling all this. In the reconstruction of the country, the economic policy alternatives will be minimal.

So far, Lula’s economic talk is just a potpourri of flowers that withered at least 12 years ago. However, as it turns out, even the market people want to believe in a possible Lula 3.