Opinion – Marcos de Vasconcellos: Investor, Brazil is not an island

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The vastness of the 8.5 million square kilometers of our territory can make us forget from time to time: Brazil is not an island.

It is natural that, submerged in the domestic news —with subjects to occupy our days and nights—, we are shorter when looking outside. You have to train your eyes not to believe that good waves mean, in themselves, a turning of the tide.

We had wonderful news last week: the Copom, the Monetary Policy Committee, kept our basic interest rate intact, signaling that, at its (very high) level, the Selic has fulfilled its mission of holding back inflation.

The cooling of prices is the most anticipated move by Brazilians in recent months. Knowing that the drug worked and that we won’t need to increase the dose for now is encouraging.

We accelerated against the US and several European countries, which announced, on the same day, the increase in interest rates and signaled that they will not stop there, since US and European inflation seems far from being controlled.

In a World Cup mood, our stock market flew on Thursday (22), while markets melted in the US, Europe and Asia. On Friday (23), the hangover hit, and the Ibovespa plunged more than 2.5% in less than two hours of trading. I’ll explain.

Knowing that money should not get more expensive in the coming months attracts investors to the companies on our Stock Exchange, which now have more clarity about the paths to be followed. Retail and construction, for example, which are completely affected by inflation, are more appetizing.

The problem is that we are sure there will be new interest rate hikes in the US, but we don’t know how far they will go. This generates insecurity about the levels practiced here. Between ourselves, Copom knows that. The statement itself said that the committee “will not hesitate to resume the adjustment cycle” if prices do not wither as expected.

Remember that one of the reasons for raising interest rates is to make government bonds attractive to large investors and to raise money? So… if US Treasuries, considered the safest in the world, become much more profitable than they are now, we may have to push the envelope here a little more to attract global money.

Analysts celebrating an alleged arrival at the Selic ceiling also said, when the readjustments began to be made, that the limit for the interest rate this year would be 6.5% per year.

The euphoria over good local news can lead to harsh readjustments when reality knocks on the door and reminds us that we are vying for money with the whole world.

Among possible contradictions between the local and global scenario, the graphs have drawn attention to Brazilian oil companies. Petrobras (PETR4), PetroRio (PRIO3), Petrorecôncavo (RECV3) and 3R Petroleum (RRRP3) saw their shares rise with pleasure, following the rise in oil prices.

Since June, however, commodity prices have been falling steadily. A barrel of Brent oil went from US$ 123 to US$ 85 last week.

The shares of Brazilian oil companies did not follow the debacle and, now, fluctuate well above the oil variation, generating insecurity about how sustainable their current prices are.

Keeping a good mood is recommended even by health professionals, but it is worth remembering Jorge Ben Jor’s recipe: “Prudence and money in your pocket; chicken soup doesn’t hurt anyone”.

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