Jair Bolsonaro and the military closest to him hint at a coup, in the event of a negative result in the elections. If they do, they will damage the whole of agribusiness, the president’s support arm.
The warning of the adoption of measures against Brazil by the United States, in the event of a rupture of democracy, would lead several other countries to follow the same path, mainly Europeans.
Only the countries of North America and the European Union would represent a drop of at least a quarter of Brazilian agribusiness exports.
Coffee, soy, meat, sugar, ethanol, fruit and orange juice would be among those most affected by a blockade against Brazil. And the effects of such a measure are real. Let the Russians say so.
For the first time, Russia will produce 91 million tonnes of wheat, with record export potential of 42 million.
Because of the war against Ukraine, much of Russia’s grain will have no buyers, due to the trade blockade imposed by the Americans, and followed by other countries.
The result will be dramatic for Russia, which does not have an adequate internal structure for the storage of grain.
In the Brazilian case, coffee is at the top of the list of imports by North Americans and Europeans. They bought the equivalent of US$ 4 billion from Brazil this year.
The protein sector, which has been trying hard to gain a greater presence in the US market, would lose all this effort made in recent years.
Brazil, which was the main exporter of beef to the United States in the first months of this year, maintained a prominent position until July.
Data from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) indicate that Brazil is the third largest exporter of beef to the North Americans.
The country was responsible for supplying 17% of all beef imported into the US through July. Last year, this percentage was 9% in the same period.
US purchases increased 197% in Brazil this year. North American ranchers will hope for a restrictive measure by the government against Brazilian protein.
Orange juice has Europe and the United States as the main markets for Brazil. They are also important for the fruit sector, which has been growing in recent years.
In the case of soy, Europe, which spent US$ 4 billion this year in Brazil, is more important than the United States, which competes with Brazilians in exports.
Sugar is also on the import list of North Americans and Europeans, who spent US$ 400 million this year to buy this product.
Ethanol exports, whose main focus is the United States, would also be closed.
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