Datafolha: Aid Brazil rises and reaches 28% of voters, but support for Bolsonaro is stagnant

A Datafolha survey shows that 28% of Brazilian voters receive or live with a beneficiary of Auxílio Brasil, according to a survey carried out from 27 to 29 September. In the previous week’s survey, they were 24%.

In last week’s survey, there were 1,636 respondents in families that receive the aid. Now, there are 1,937, 301 more respondents.

The voting intention of these people in the first round was stable between the two surveys. Among those voters, former president Lula (PT) would have 58% of the votes, up from 59% the week before and 57% about 15 days ago — all fluctuations within the margin of error. The percentage of those who would vote for President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) remained at 26% in the three surveys.

As Datafolha has shown, the difference between the two candidates is smaller among voters who do not receive Auxílio Brasil: 44% for Lula and 37% for Bolsonaro. The two were up one percentage point from the previous survey.

The positive assessment of the government remained at 27% among beneficiaries and fluctuated from 34% to 33% among those who do not receive the aid.

The social benefit, readjusted on the eve of the campaign to the minimum amount of R$ 600, is one of the main bets of the government seeking reelection. From September 19 to 30, the benefit was paid to 20.65 million families, 450 thousand more than in August, when 20.2 million were entitled to an income.

Last Tuesday (27), the government published the rules for contracting payroll loans by beneficiaries. The amount borrowed is limited to R$2,569.34, with a maximum interest rate of 3.5% per month and a term of up to two years.

Bolsonaro promised in his election campaign an extra payment of R$200 to Auxílio Brasil families through a benefit created in 2021 and which he himself did not implement. In the 2023 Budget, the program had a reserve of BRL 105.7 billion, enough to cover the average benefit of BRL 405.21.

The data are in line with the cutouts by income bracket. Among voters who earn up to two minimum wages (50% of those interviewed in this survey), the PT maintains a 31-point lead over the president: 57% to 26% of the total. Bolsonaro ties with Lula or has an advantage over his predecessor in all segments from R$2,424 in average monthly income in the interviewee’s home.

The survey also shows that the gas voucher paid by the federal government reached 10% of respondents, compared to 7% detected in the previous week.

Former President Lula leads the race with 50% of the valid votes, which keeps the possibility of winning in the first round open. In pursuit of reelection, Bolsonaro has 36%, followed by Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 6%, and Simone Tebet (MDB), with 5%. In the simulation of the second round, the PT has 54%, and the president, 39%.

Datafolha heard 6,800 people in 332 cities from Tuesday (27) to Thursday (29). The survey was commissioned by Sheet and by TV Globo and registered under the number BR-09479/2022 at the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

Among women, 34% are in families that receive the aid. This is another group in which the PT has positioned itself better in the polls. Among men, it is 23%.

The percentage is also higher in the North (46%) and Northeast (44%) and is around 20% in the other regions of the country.

It is also higher among evangelicals (34% receive the benefit) than among Catholics (27%).

Among those who declare a preference for the PT, 36% are beneficiaries. Among those who prefer Bolsonaro’s party (PL), they are 17%.

35% of PT voters, 29% of Ciro’s voters and 22% of supporters of the current president receive aid.

Beneficiaries represent around 35% of those who declare themselves to be black or brown and 17% among whites. It is in about 55% of the unemployed, 51% of housewives and 45% of unregistered wage earners.