With Aid, women and the poorest are Bolsonaro’s 1st target to reduce Lula’s advantage

The campaign of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) intends to fire promises in the economic area in an attempt to overcome the difference in votes between the Chief Executive and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who ended the first round in the leadership.

The priority target is the sections of the electorate in which the PT has a big advantage: women and the poorest.

The first initiative is the indication that Bolsonaro, if reelected, will pay a 13th benefit to Auxílio Brasil families that are headed by women from 2023. In July, they were 16.7 million, which would generate an approximate cost of R $10 billion.

No member of the campaign, however, presented the size of the bill, let alone how it would fit into next year’s Budget, which is quite compressed and already has a billion-dollar bill of repressed spending — including the additional expense of BRL 52.5 billion to maintain the minimum benefit of R$ 600 for the program’s families.

While adding to the list of promises, the government has accelerated resources already approved. As in previous months, the Auxílio Brasil payment schedule in October will be brought forward. Before, transfers to families would end on the 31st, after the second round. Now, they will close on the 25th, before the voting takes place.

The government also regulated the granting of payroll-deductible loans to program beneficiaries, a measure that has the potential to put more money in the hands of vulnerable families — with the side effect of encouraging indebtedness, something that experts have criticized.

Bolsonaro also prepares nods to captive audiences, such as police officers. The government is in internal negotiations to make possible the appointment of public servants from the Federal Police. The topic was discussed at a technical meeting on Monday.

The campaign is not so concerned at the moment with the viability of the proposals, but with the positive impact that the announcement can already generate among voters who voted for other candidates last Sunday (2).

The assessment is that attracting low-income voters is vital for Bolsonaro to increase his chances of winning the second round. In Sunday’s vote, this group gave Lula’s majority support. In all, the PT had 48.43% of the valid votes, against 43.20% for the current president.

In addition, women are part of the electorate that most rejects Bolsonaro, according to polls. Therefore, making gestures and trying to improve your image with them has been one of the main challenges.

The results of the first round cheered Bolsonaro’s allies, who believe in the possibility of a turnaround. The president was in second place, but with a smaller distance than what had been observed in the polls of voting intentions.

Despite the strategy around Auxílio Brasil, the numbers indicate that the beneficiaries of the program have not helped Bolsonaro and are more likely to vote for Lula.

In an interview shortly after the votes were counted, Bolsonaro gave the password that the government intends to seek in the economy the elements to try to convince the voter.

“The message [para o segundo turno] is that Brazil, taking into account the vast majority of countries in the world, is the one that is doing the best in terms of the economy”, he said.

Technicians believe that the government has good results to show due to the deceleration of inflation (mainly due to the reduction in fuel prices), the upward revisions of growth projection and the increase in investments, especially from abroad.

These data have been used as a counterpoint to negative news, such as the increase in hunger in Brazil — information contested by the government based on a study by IPEA (Institute of Economic and Applied Research) signed only by its president and criticized by other experts for being in disagreement with good research practices.

In reaction to the attacks on the government’s economic performance, Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) had already, in recent weeks, expanded his exposure in interviews in an attempt to spread positive data and give ammunition to pro-presidential militants. This Monday (3) after the first round, he was together with other ministers and their teams in a meeting with Bolsonaro at Palácio da Alvorada.

In internal conversations with their teams, government ministers have conveyed the message that the month “is going to be tough” and that everyone needs to remain “steadfast” at work.

There will also be investments focused on women. One of the ideas is to reinforce the propaganda of government measures aimed at women, including the delivery of rural titles to mothers of families and the enactment of laws to protect women.

Lula also bets on the economy to win votes

In the opposing camp, Lula promises to insist that the country’s situation is not good, as Bolsonaro preaches. The PT will also turn to the economy to try to convince voters that he has lived better and, therefore, should bet on a change of government.

“You know that the country is worse. The economy is not good, the quality of life is not good, employment is not good, income is not good, health is not good. And that we need recover this country”, said Lula shortly after the result of the first round.

The PT’s reasoning is that the recent improvement was manufactured by the government with an electoral objective, through the reduction of fuel prices and the temporary expansion of Auxílio Brasil. Meanwhile, food inflation, which weighs heavily on the pockets of the most vulnerable, remains one of the highest among the components measured in price indices.

Lula’s campaign also reinforces, whenever he has the opportunity, the argument that Bolsonaro increased the value of Auxílio Brasil to R$600 only until December, since the measure was not included in the 2023 Budget proposal — the additional cost was not included. fits into the current spending ceiling design, which will need to be changed.