Opinion – Helio Beltrão: A revealing and educational election

It was a revealing election. The predictions of the political foxes, to a large extent, did not come true. President Bolsonaro came out strengthened and on the rise for the second round. In Congress, the left stagnated and there was a notable advance on the right. Political polarization was reflected in the parliamentary composition, but with a clear advantage for the right, which came to lead both the Chamber and the Senate.

There was a festival of defeats of the old politics and of perceived traitors of President Bolsonaro. Orlando Silva, Ivan Valente, Paulinho da Força, Collor, Requião, Vicentinho, Cesar Maia, José Serra, Álvaro Dias, Alessandro Molon, Eduardo Cunha, Marcelo Ramos, nor Luiz Henrique Mandetta, Joice Hasselmann, Alexandre Frota and the brothers were elected. Weintraub. Additionally, Ciro Gomes was crushed, and the PSDB lost relevance.

On the other hand, among the 10 most voted deputies, there are only 2 from the left and 5 or 6 with solid liberal credentials. Lava Jato was exalted, with significant votes by Sergio Moro and Deltan Dallagnol in Paraná.

The market reacted very positively. The dollar’s ​​fall from BRL 5.40 to BRL 5.17 was largely a reflection of the realization that the extreme left’s plans to revoke reforms by the Temer and Bolsonaro government – ​​such as the spending cap, labor reform, the sanitation framework and the extinction of the union tax—will be fiercely opposed in Congress.

The worst stain in the election was the polls. The best-rated institutes until recently have vexedly erred. They lost credibility for the second round and maybe definitively. This topic will be on the agenda for an extended period.

Among the political news, the PSOL/Rede federation grew and surpassed the important barrier clause, but Novo was one of the losers and reduced its participation in Congress to less than half. The exception was Romeu Zema’s spectacular victory for the government of Minas Gerais.

Novo’s strategic error occurred between 2019 and early 2022. The founder, João Amoêdo, supported by the leadership, opted for a systematic opposition to the government, focusing on the impeachment of the president. The idea was to frame the entire party. The representatives, genuine liberals, were persecuted as enemies and, in a McCarthyist wave, were labeled “bolsonaristas” for not embarking on this crusade for impeachment.

Instead of focusing on an anti-PT front, Novo chose to directly fight the Bolsonarista wave in search of right-wing voters.

The party split, and after a long purge, a new governance was built in 2022. It was too late. Many antibolsonaristas left the party, but were not successful on Sunday (3). Others remained, but preferred not to take a stand in favor of the government’s liberal agenda: they also did poorly. There remained pragmatic liberals such as Marcel van Hattem and Gilson Marques, who knew how to balance the necessary criticisms with support for liberal agendas. There were very expressive votes.

The PSOL, on the other hand, ideologically positioned itself to the left of the PT and supported Lula as a representative of the leftist front. Apparently, he learned the lesson from the crushing defeats of Marina Silva in 2014 and Ciro Gomes, who fought the PT in the search for left and extreme left voters. The PSOL formed cadres and grew with its own identity, distinct from the PT.

The Novo implicitly showed indifference between an agenda led by the PT and the Bolsonaro/Guedes agenda: it got the image of being exempt. The right saw betrayal, while the center left continued to perceive the New as part of the government’s front. It ended up being squeezed by the flanks.

The party’s new governance is promising, but it will have difficult decisions to make. Liberals deserve a house to call their own, but it needs to be rebuilt.