Vaivém: Brazil will have a full crop in 2023, but with many challenges

National grain production will reach 312 million tons next year. It will be a record crop, but with many challenges.

This is what Conab (National Supply Company) expects in the first estimate for the 2022/23 harvest. Sergio De Zen, director of the entity, warns, however, that the producer must be very careful in the commercialization and in the investments.

It’s great news for production, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty coming from the market. Inflation and high interest rates can bring down the international market.

A lower demand in Europe or China, in the Chinese case due to the lockdowns, should affect prices, which is good for the consumer, but brings challenges for the producer, since he planted with high costs, according to the director. .

If the national volume expected by Conab is confirmed, production in 2022/23 will be 15% higher than the previous one. In volume, there will be 41.5 million tons more.

The national production of grains is advancing rapidly, but very focused on the foreign market. Soybean and corn will add up to 279 million tons. Of this volume, 141 million will be destined for the foreign market, according to Conab.

Soybean production has the potential to reach 152 million tons; corn, 127 million. Of the corn volume, 96 million will come from the second harvest.

The production of rice and beans drops to 13.7 million tons, 0.44% less than in the previous harvest, forcing the country to import 1.2 million tons of these products.

Soybeans will have an area increase of 3.4%, with planting spreading over 43 million hectares. The space dedicated to rice will fall to 1.5 million hectares, 5% less than the previous year.

Considering average data for the country, production will be leveraged by productivity. The total sown area grows by 3%, while the average yield per hectare will increase by 13%, as long as the weather helps during planting, crop development and harvesting.

This Thursday (6th) data from Conab indicate that agriculture is advancing towards the North. The region will have a growth of 6.5%, with emphasis on Roraima, whose evolution will be 20%.

The Northeast grows 1.6%; and the Midwest, 4.2%. South and Southeast grew 1% and 2.2%, respectively.

Soybean area increases by 26% in Roraima; 18% in Alagoas, and 12% in Pará. Corn has a forecast increase of 13% in Tocantins and Rondônia and 7.4% in Maranhão.

Conab did not change the wheat numbers, in relation to those released in September. The 2022/23 area was 3 million hectares, with a production forecast of 9.4 million tons. As for prices, Allan Silveira, from Conab, says that they are weaker in this harvest period, but that they will not have much room for drops due to the international scenario.

Ethanol For Guilherme Nolasco, president of Unem (National Union of Corn Ethanol), the evolution of the corn crop is an incentive for the production of ethanol from this cereal.

Ethanol 2 In 2021/22, the production of ethanol from corn is expected to reach 4.5 billion liters, according to Imea (Instituto Mato Grosso de Economia Agropecuária), with 10.3 million tons of cereal grinding. In 2030/31, there will be 10 billion liters, estimates the Unem.

proteins Beef exports total 1.5 million tons from January to September this year, 18% more than in the same period in 2021. The average price received, however, dropped 8% per ton.

proteins 2 The data are from the Itaú BBA Radar Agro. In the same period, the average price of exported chicken fell by 2.3%; swine, 27%.

Soy HedgePoint Global Markets estimates an area of ​​42.8 million hectares for soybeans in the 2022/23 harvest. Productivity is expected to reach 3,435 kilos per hectare, below Conab’s 3,552 kilos. With this, the production estimated by HedgePoint for the oilseed is 147.1 million tons.