Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Country elects a Congress like never before seen in democracy

Most of the political discussion is drowned in the sea of ​​anxiety about the outcome of the presidential election. It’s understandable. We may be at the time of the death of democracy. However, it would be worth paying attention to Congress, a matter that has been partly obliterated by the excessive discussion of “support” for the second round, often just political gossip.

The Congress is a matter of practical and almost immediate interest. Although it seems like an old story, not enough attention has yet been paid to the fact that the majority of Congress and the House and Senate presidencies must be dominated by a right-wing, physiological and/or extremist coalition, which has never been seen in redemocratization.

This should have serious consequences for both Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The right-wing bloc will have influence on the policy of the Supreme (sic), even greater in the misuse of the Budget and in the rigging of State functions.

PL, União Brasil, the PP, which governs for Bolsonaro, and the Republicanos (strict evangelical party) got fat due to Bolsonarism, Bolsonaro or they joined. In coalition, they would have 246 votes.

They can gain more weight, due to the flight of parliamentarians from parties threatened by the barrier clause or attracted by other incentives. The coalition could still grow with the easy adhesion of a dozen right wing midgets.

This right-wing court elected 154 deputies in 2018 and 114 in 2014, it should be noted. 2014 was also the year of great fragmentation, of the beginning of the dissolution of the dominant party system between 1990 and 2010, in which the largest parties were generally PMDB, PFL (after DEM), PSDB and PT. Of these parties, the “old center”, central to the definition of government and opposition, has just dissolved.

Party fragmentation in the Chamber decreased in 2022. Although still large, it returned to more or less the level it was between 2002 and 2010. In fact, it had already decreased during the 2019-2022 legislature.

In those years, the PL got fat with the migration of hard bolsonaristas from the PSL, the União Brasil absorbed the watery bolsonarismo of the remaining PSL, as the DEM took an attitude in order not to become a runt like the PSDB. In addition, they elected even more deputies.

The center, finally, reached the center of power, after two decades as a minor aggregate of PSDB-DEM and PT. Now, he’s donned the clothes of the extreme right over physiological skin — or he’s on the extreme right. These parties are grandchildren or great-grandchildren of Arena, the party of the dictatorship. They are led by some regional oligarchs, but their composition and social base are still not well understood.

Popular opinion and the opinion of many political scientists say that it is easy to buy parliamentary support. Whatever. It became more expensive and this has several consequences.

One consequence, despised by many political scientists, was the great disgust of the population for a negotiable political system, “ideologically” undifferentiated, closed to participation and demands for real changes and results. The revolt against such a state of affairs exploded in 2013 and continues. It is no accident that the “anti-system” attitude has appeal, even after Bolsonaro’s farce.

More concretely, Bolsonaro may have an easier life in the new Chamber, in part because of ideological affinity. Even if he follows the rice and beans of a certain politology, redistribution without more power, Lula will have problems. The most malleable core of Congress is gone and the left is even tinier.

This change seems old, as it started to become evident in the 2014 election, took off in 2018 and gave a strong sign of persistence in the 2020 municipal election. But it was not consolidated, as is glaring from the result of this 2022 election. great.